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Israel at War: Inside the Nuclear Showdown with Iran

Copyright © 2012 by Joel C. Rosenberg. All rights reserved.

Cover photograph copyright © Gary Hardman/SXC images. All rights reserved.

Designed by Dean H. Renninger

Unless otherwise indicated, all Scripture quotations are taken from the New American Standard Bible,® copyright © 1960, 1962, 1963, 1968, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1995 by The Lockman Foundation. Used by permission.

Scripture quotations marked KJV are taken from the Holy Bible, King James Version.

ISBN 978-1-4143-8375-0 (Apple); ISBN 978-1-4143-8377-4 (ePub); ISBN 978-1-4143-8376-7 (Mobi)

Build: 2012-10-12 08:11:41

Contents

A Note to Readers

Chapter One: The Moment of Decision

Chapter Two: Is Israel Bluffing?

Chapter Three: What Netanyahu Believes

Chapter Four: A Clear and Present Danger

Chapter Five: The Road to War

Chapter Six: The Final Countdown

Chapter Seven: What Does the Future Hold?

Sneak Preview of Damascus Countdown

About the Author

Notes

A Note to Readers

I met Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time on the morning of September 25, 2000. We met at the St. Regis Hotel in New York City. He interviewed me briefly, and then the man who had once served as prime minister of Israel (1996–1999) invited me to serve on a small team of American advisors that would complement his Israeli political team. When I said yes, he led me into an adjoining conference room, where I was introduced to several members of this team. Over the next six hours, we began to develop a plan to put Netanyahu back into power.

In many ways, Netanyahu’s political comeback seemed predestined to me. I recall believing that I had just been hired by a once and future leader of Israel, and while I didn’t agree with Netanyahu on every decision he had made in the past, we largely saw eye to eye, and I considered working for him an honor. I had a front-row seat to the great drama of history unfolding before my eyes.

At the time, there were plenty of politicians and pundits both inside and outside Israel who didn’t think Netanyahu would ever become prime minister again. Many, in fact, were dead set against it. Yet despite the drubbing Netanyahu had taken at the polls in 1999, I felt certain he was going to return for two reasons. First, I believed the Israeli people were going to turn back to Netanyahu for his economic and financial savvy and for his strategic foresight. I believed Israel would benefit from his expertise to help grow the Israeli economy and would need his deep determination to protect the Jewish State from a second Holocaust, should Iran ever get the Bomb. Second, for reasons I could not fully explain in the moment, I believed the hand of God was on him and that the Lord was going to raise him up at a critical moment in the history of the Jewish people—and a prophetic moment at that.

What intrigued me about Netanyahu was that he saw something few other leaders in Israel—or around the world—saw. He understood that while the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was painful and important and historic and truly worthy of being solved in a fair and just way, it was not the primary danger facing Israelis or the rest of the people in the modern Middle East. Rather, he could see that the prospect of Middle Eastern dictators acquiring and using nuclear weapons was the real danger, one that absolutely must be avoided at all costs. Thus, while Netanyahu believed sincere efforts needed to be made by Israeli and world leaders to find peace with the Palestinians, he believed far more attention needed to be paid to dealing with Iraq and Iran.

Stopping Saddam Hussein from getting the Bomb had been a top priority for Netanyahu’s mentor, Prime Minister Menachem Begin. It was Begin who ordered the successful Israeli preemptive air strike against the Osirik nuclear reactor in Iraq on June 7, 1981. The international community—including the Reagan administration—was infuriated by the surprise raid, dubbed “Operation Opera” by the Israel Defense Forces. Critics blasted Begin for threatening to destabilize the Middle East. But Netanyahu knew what Begin knew—that the Middle East was already unstable and that the worst-case scenario was for the Butcher of Baghdad to have weapons of mass destruction.

The world also condemned Begin for taking such huge risks and yet only setting back Saddam’s nuclear program temporarily, not permanently. Such critics were certain Saddam would restart his nuclear program in two or three years. They were convinced Begin had just given Saddam a reason to accelerate, not slow down, his pursuit of the Bomb. Yet both Begin and Netanyahu saw that the critics were wrong. The Israeli attack had actually deeply rattled Saddam and had done far more damage to his nuclear program than first thought. As a result, Saddam was not able to quickly reconstitute his nuclear program. Begin’s decision in 1981 actually bought Israel not just two or three years of security from an Iraqi nuclear weapon, but a full decade.

In 1991, the United States led an international coalition to drive Saddam out of Kuwait and keep Iraq’s offensive military capabilities fully contained. Then, in 2003, the U.S. led another international coalition to oust Saddam from power and shut down any prospect of Iraq’s acquiring or using weapons of mass destruction.

Netanyahu drew several important lessons from these developments.

1. Sometimes the critics are wrong.

2. Sometimes an Israeli prime minister must act decisively in defense of his country despite widespread domestic and international criticism.

3. Sometimes the effort to buy even a few years of additional security through preemptive military action ends up buying more time than anticipated.

Iraq, however, was not Netanyahu’s main concern. Iran was.

In his writings, speeches, and personal conversations, Netanyahu had long made the case that the real, long-term strategic threat to the U.S., Israel, and the security of the world were the mullahs in Tehran, who were trying to annihilate Judeo-Christian civilization in order to build their global Islamic Caliphate. In Iran, Netanyahu saw a new Third Reich rising. In a nation of Holocaust survivors, he was determined to do everything in his power to protect his people.

First, however, he was going to have to get back into power.

That, it turned out, took longer than any of us expected. Netanyahu did not return to high office in the time that I worked for him. To the contrary, as I described in my first nonfiction book, Epicenter, he was effectively blocked from running in early 2001 by his chief political rival, then–Prime Minister Ehud Barak.[1] Then he found himself repeatedly prevented from rising through the political ranks as longtime rivals of his—men like Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert—ascended ahead of him. During this time, Netanyahu served in various lesser roles, first as Israel’s foreign minister, later as finance minister, and for a season merely as a member of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, all but exiled from the center of power. All the while, he watched Sharon and Olmert (like Barak before them) focus almost exclusively on giving away land and offering to divide Jerusalem, even while Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorists were rapidly gaining power in southern Lebanon, Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists were gaining control in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear threat was growing year by year. Netanyahu was convinced he understood the strategic threats facing Israel far better than his rivals, and he was convinced he knew how to deal effectively with these threats. Indeed, close friends of Netanyahu told me during this period that he believed he had been born for this moment.

On February 10, 2009, Netanyahu’s right-of-center Likud political party was finally swept back into power on a wave of popular support. They increased their position from holding a mere twelve seats in the Knesset to twenty-seven seats and receiving a mandate to form a new coalition government, which they did in short order. On March 31, 2009—nearly ten full years after he had been drummed out of office—Netanyahu was sworn in once again as prime minister of the State of Israel.

Today Netanyahu stands at the epicenter of international attention at the most dangerous moment in the modern history of the Jewish State. In the absence of the U.S. or the international community taking decisive measures to neutralize the rapidly growing Iranian nuclear threat, Netanyahu now faces the most difficult decision of his long and fascinating political and military career. Should he order the IDF into a full-scale, all-out war to neutralize the Iranian threat in the next few days, weeks, or months? Or should he delay, hoping the negotiations and sanctions against Iran will eventually work? Should he wait and hope that the U.S. will take decisive action?

The risks of going to war are enormous. But as Netanyahu sees it, so are the risks of not going to war. What if Israel waits too long? What if Washington continues to hesitate and fails to take action in time to prevent Iran from getting the Bomb? What if the Israeli people wake up one morning to the news that those running Iran now have operational nuclear warheads and both the will and the eagerness to use them to annihilate Israel and hasten the coming of the so-called Islamic messiah known as the Twelfth Imam or the Mahdi? Worse, what if one morning many of the Israeli people never wake up at all because the mullahs in Tehran have—without warning—launched a nuclear strike and wiped out most, if not all, of the Jewish State?

Netanyahu has been warning his country, the U.S., and the world of this very danger since the early 1990s. Now the hour of decision has arrived, and the stakes could not be higher. Only time will tell how he will handle this extraordinary test. I have written this book, in part, to assess the magnitude of the threat and the varied dimensions of this fateful decision. How did we get to this point? How do Netanyahu and his closest advisors perceive the enemy, the timetable, the risks, and the endgame? Who is Benjamin Netanyahu? How will the Israeli leader’s complicated relationship with President Obama affect his assessment of the road ahead? What other personal and historical factors are weighing on his mind as he navigates this crisis? What could be the unintended consequences of a decision to go to war? What’s more, how does the current crisis fit into historical trends in the Middle East, and how could this crisis set the stage for Bible prophecies to come to pass in the years ahead?

This book is based on twelve years of observing the man now responsible for leading Israel through this crisis. During that time, I have tracked his speeches and comments in the media and discussed these issues with him personally. I have also had hundreds of hours of conversations in recent years with other Israeli, American, and Iranian military, intelligence, and political experts who are uniquely qualified to shed light on the drama now unfolding. Among those whose conversations shaped my thinking for this book are:

- Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel (2009–present and 1996–1999)

- Moshe Ya’alon, Israeli vice prime minister (2009–present) and former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (2002–2005)

- Uri Lubrani, senior advisor on Iran affairs to Israel’s vice prime minister (2009–present) and former Israeli ambassador to Iran (1973–1978)

- Avigdor Lieberman, Israeli foreign minister (2009–present)

- Danny Ayalon, Israeli deputy foreign minister (2009–present)

- Yaakov Amidror, Israeli national security advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu (2011–present) and former head of assessment for Israeli military intelligence

- Ron Dermer, senior advisor to the Israeli prime minister (2008–present)

- Dore Gold, president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (2000–present), longtime advisor to Netanyahu, former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations (1997–1999), and former senior advisor to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon (2001–2003)

- Natan Sharansky, head of the Jewish Agency (2009–present) and former deputy prime minister of Israel (2001–2003)

- Porter Goss, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2004–2006) and former chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (1997–2004)

- Reza Kahlili, former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officer who became an agent for the CIA, author of A Time to Betray: The Astonishing Double Life of a CIA Agent inside the Revolutionary Guards of Iran

- Lieutenant General (ret.) William “Jerry” Boykin, former U.S. deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and war fighting (2003–2007), former commander of Delta Force, author of Never Surrender: A Soldier’s Journey to the Crossroads of Faith and Freedom

Some of my sources spoke on the record, some off. While not all of them may agree with the analysis and conclusions found in the pages ahead, I am exceedingly grateful for their valuable time and helpful insights. I have no doubt this book is richer for the assistance they provided.

Joel C. Rosenberg

WASHINGTON, D.C.

OCTOBER 10, 2012

Chapter One

The Moment of Decision

July 18, 2012, was a gorgeous summer day. It was bright and clear, with blue skies, white wispy clouds, and a slight breeze—the perfect day to start a vacation. The charter flight from Tel Aviv landed in the Bulgarian resort town of Burgas at 4:50 p.m. local time. The more than 150 passengers—mostly Israelis but a few other nationalities as well—got off the plane and headed to the baggage claim, joking and laughing, glad to be away from the pressure cooker of the Middle East and finally on a low-cost, low-stress holiday. Nothing seemed amiss.

Waiting for them outside the terminal were several chartered tour buses. Soon the Israelis were double-checking their itineraries, finding which bus they had been assigned to, loading their luggage under the coaches, and climbing aboard. No one noticed the long-haired young man lurking in the shadows, wearing a blue-and-white T-shirt, striped shorts, a baseball cap, and sunglasses and carrying a large, bulky backpack. Even if they had, he didn’t seem threatening. In many ways he looked just like them—young and carefree, glad to be traveling, eager to get away from it all.

But moments before one of the buses—filled with forty-two Israelis—closed its doors and began to pull away, the young man with the backpack approached, tried to board, and then depressed the detonator in his hand. In a blinding flash and a deafening boom, his backpack exploded. A massive, horrific explosion ripped through the bus. The shock wave rocked the entire airport. Shattered glass, shards of molten metal, and burning human body parts flew everywhere. Flames shot out of the shell of the bus. Thick, black smoke poured into the sky and could be seen for miles in every direction.

When the smoke cleared, nearly three dozen Israelis lay terribly wounded, some bleeding profusely and shrieking in pain. Five Israelis lay dead.[2] The Bulgarian bus driver was also killed instantly. All that remained of the suicide bomber was his severed head, found hundreds of yards away from the blast.

Among the dead was a pregnant Israeli woman named Kochava Shriki. Her husband, Itzik, was wounded in the blast but survived. “Those evil murderers,” said one of Kochava’s grieving sisters. “She [was] a 42-year-old pregnant woman. . . . They were just going away for a three-day vacation and they had to return in a coffin.” Said another sibling, “She was our little sister. She had no children and got pregnant after four years of treatment. The day she left for the trip, she received the news that she was pregnant.”[3]

One local government official described the attack as “the largest terrorist attack against Bulgaria in our modern history.”

“All the signs are pointing to Iran,” said Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, referring to evidence gathered by Israeli and American intelligence agencies. “In the past few months we’ve seen Iran try to target Israelis in Thailand, [India], Georgia, Cyprus and more. . . . The murderous Iranian terror continues to target innocent people. Iranian terror is spreading worldwide. . . . Israel will react to it with force.” Netanyahu noted that the attack came on the eighteenth anniversary of an Iranian-backed terrorist attack on a Jewish center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, that killed eighty-five people and injured hundreds more.[4]

Iran’s Unanswered War

Make no mistake: Iran is already at war with Israel and with the United States.

Since the dawn of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his band of Shia Muslim radicals overthrew the pro-Western shah and came to power in Tehran, the leaders of Iran have declared war on America and “the Zionists.” They have declared America the “Great Satan” and Israel the “Little Satan.” They have called for the annihilation of both. They have encouraged millions of Muslims in Iran and throughout the world to pray and chant, “Death to America! Death to Israel!” They have also built, funded, trained, and armed terrorist organizations to kill Americans and Israelis, seemingly with impunity.

On October 23, 1983, for example, agents of Ayatollah Khomeini used a suicide bomber to plow a truck filled with explosives into the U.S. Marines barracks in Beirut, Lebanon, killing 241 Americans. The attack resulted in “the largest non-nuclear explosion that had ever been detonated on the face of the Earth,” according to a U.S. federal court judge who found the Islamic Republic of Iran guilty of perpetrating the crime. The idea for the attack came from Iran. The funding for the attack came from Iran. The driver of the truck was an Iranian. What’s more, U.S. military intelligence intercepted a message between Tehran and Damascus directing the Iranian ambassador to instruct the leader of the terrorist group “to take a spectacular action against the United States Marines.” The evidence presented in federal court of Iran’s complicity in the Beirut attacks was so clear and compelling that the judge ordered Iran to pay $2.6 billion in damages to the families of the American victims. Yet despite this blatant act of war, the Reagan administration did not go to war against Iran.[5]

On June 25, 1996, Iranian-backed terrorists detonated a tanker truck filled with plastic explosives in front of the Khobar Towers housing complex near Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, all but destroying the nearest building. The attack brutally killed 19 American military servicemen and one Saudi citizen and wounded 372 others. This case eventually went to federal court as well. The evidence of Iran’s complicity was so damning the judge ordered the Islamic Republic of Iran to pay $253 million in damages to the families of the American victims. Yet despite this blatant act of war, the Clinton administration did not go to war against Iran.[6]

Since 2001, Iranian-backed terrorists in Gaza have fired more than 12,700 rockets and mortars at the cities and towns along Israel’s southern border. Through Hamas and its other Palestinian terror allies, Iran has killed at least 44 Israelis and has physically injured more than 1,700 over the past decade through rocket attacks alone. At the same time, Iran has put the lives of a million innocent Israeli civilians—both Jews and Arabs—in danger and has caused everyone in southern Israel to battle the constant fear that at any moment of any day a rocket, missile, or mortar round could strike them or their children with only seconds of warning.[7]

In the Israeli town of Sderot, located on the border with the Gaza Strip, almost half the population has fled. Nearly everyone with the financial means to move away from Sderot has done so, seeking new homes, jobs, and lives outside of rocket range. Most small business owners have left Sderot as well. Unemployment is high. Wages are low. Those who remain are overwhelmingly poor—widows, single moms and their kids, seniors living on fixed incomes, and impoverished Holocaust survivors. Many feel forgotten and alone. Thousands suffer from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), though it’s hardly “post.” The rockets keep coming, and so do the trauma and the stress.

Lest there be any doubt what country is ultimately responsible for all these attacks, Palestinian terror leaders routinely visit Tehran and openly meet with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has publicly praised the Iranian regime for directly helping his terrorist organization work for “victory” over Israel.[8] Senior Hamas official Mahmoud Zahar has also publicly sung the praises of Iran’s “limitless support” of Palestinian terror attacks against the Jewish State.[9]

Iran also continues to provide seemingly “limitless support” to the Hezbollah terror organization in Lebanon. In 2006, Hezbollah forces attacked Israeli soldiers patrolling the border. Then they launched some four thousand rockets and missiles at Israeli civilian population centers in what became known as the Second Lebanon War. For more than one month, a million Israeli citizens were forced to live in bomb shelters or flee to the south to avoid the death and destruction raining from the skies. The Israel Defense Forces struck back hard against Hezbollah and inflicted serious damage to the terror group’s infrastructure before eventually accepting a cease-fire arrangement. Yet Israel did not launch a full-blown war of retaliation directly against Iran.

Similarly, on December 27, 2008, the IDF launched a military blitz into Gaza—a brief war known in Israel as “Operation Cast Lead”—in an attempt to neutralize Hamas’s ability to barrage Israel with rocket attacks. The IDF offensive did significantly slow the rocket and mortar attacks but by no means stopped them completely. Indeed, in the last four years alone, the Iranian-backed terrorists in Gaza have fired more than one thousand rockets, missiles, and mortar rounds at southern Israel. In response, the IDF has retaliated against the terrorist cells and leaders in Gaza. The IDF has also targeted factories that make the rockets and warehouses stockpiling weapons. Thus far, however, Israel has not launched a full-blown war against Iran, the architect and originator of all these attacks.

Iran’s Nuclear Threat

However, the worst may be yet to come. Terror groups in Gaza that regularly purchase rockets, missiles, and other arms from Iran are beginning to import from Iran even larger, more powerful, more precise, and longer-range rockets and missiles, adding to the threat and the stress.

At the same time, since the Second Lebanon War, Iran has helped Hezbollah build up an arsenal of nearly sixty-five thousand rockets and missiles, many of which are far more powerful and precise than the weapons in the Hamas arsenal. Secret cables from the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv back to the State Department in Washington (exposed by WikiLeaks) reveal that the Israelis anticipate Hezbollah will fire four hundred to six hundred missiles at the Jewish State every day for at least two months should a major new war begin, including one hundred missiles a day fired directly at Tel Aviv, Israel’s most populated city.[10]

Most worrisome of all, of course, is Iran’s highly advanced program to build nuclear warheads and the missiles and terror networks to deliver them. Based on Iran’s track record of religiously motivated violence against Israel, does anyone seriously believe Iran would not use nuclear weapons to annihilate the Jewish State if it had the chance? Does anyone seriously believe that if Iran’s leaders were armed with nuclear warheads, their genocidal ambitions could be contained or deterred?

Netanyahu sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat to both the Jewish people and the entire world. He believes Iran must be stopped from building atomic weapons. In the shadows, therefore, Israel is doing everything it can possibly think of to slow down if not derail Iran’s bid for the Bomb, short of all-out war. Reports of Israel’s high-stakes covert war with Iran are peppered with daring, if unconfirmed, tales of espionage, sabotage, and state-of-the-art cyber warfare. But Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders are not convinced these actions will prove decisive. Iran is getting closer and closer to having the Bomb, and Israeli leaders say they are running out of time.

As a result, Israel is steadily approaching the moment of decision, the moment so many have long feared and for which so many have long prepared: Should Israel launch a full-scale “kinetic” war involving fighter jets, submarines, precision-guided missiles, rockets, special forces, satellites, and drones to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat and topple Iran’s fanatical leadership, and if so, when?

“The Most Important Thing Is to Tell the Truth”

In the middle of Israel’s last war—“Operation Cast Lead”—I was invited to participate in a conference call with then-former Prime Minister Netanyahu and a group of conservative writers. During the call, Netanyahu, who was in the midst of his campaign to once again become prime minister, briefed us on the latest developments of the war, its roots, and how it fit into the larger geopolitical picture in the Middle East. He also provided a window into why he was running for high office again and what he intended to do if he again became Israel’s premier.

Netanyahu said he saw Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza not only as a “just war” but as a “proxy war” with radical Muslim leaders in Iran and very possibly as a prelude to a future war to stop radicals in Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

“Our fight with Hamas,” he said, “is with terrorists who have backers in Iran and have shown the willingness to use any methods, including firing rockets on innocent civilians.” He added, “Israel is now the front line in the battle between militant Islam and the rest of the world . . . and there are enormous global consequences. . . . Israel cannot tolerate an Iranian forward position in Gaza.”[11]

Israel’s “immediate goal,” Netanyahu noted, “should be removing the threat by stopping the firing and preventing the resupply of rockets and other weaponry by Hamas.” However, Netanyahu insisted that Israel’s ultimate goal—its most important long-term objective—had to be blocking Iran from becoming the dominant regional power.

Each of us on the call had been invited to ask questions of the man who would likely be the next leader of Israel. Through the moderator, I asked what Jews, evangelical Christians, and other friends of Israel could do to help the Jewish State in its showdown with Iran, Hamas, and the forces of radical Islam.

“The most important thing is to tell the truth,” Netanyahu replied. “There is a campaign of lies against us. . . . It is important to get the facts straight. The facts do count. The facts should be spoken and written loud and clear by the friends of Israel.”

It was an intriguing answer, I thought. Netanyahu did not ask for funds. He did not ask for Americans to call the White House or their representatives in Congress and urge them to provide political support or increased military assistance for Israel. Nor did he ask for humanitarian aid, either from the U.S. government or through Jewish and Christian relief organizations. Rather, he asked us to counter the “campaign of lies” against the Jewish people, to accurately explain the truth about the enemy Israel faced, the reasons why Israel had to go to war, and the reasons why this was a “just war” using “just means.”

And communicating these truths will be important in the next war as well. The 2009 war in Gaza, after all, was a “proxy war.” What is coming is the main event, and it is steadily drawing closer.

In his September 27, 2012, address to the United Nations General Assembly, Prime Minister Netanyahu warned the international community that “Iran’s apocalyptic leaders” were 70 percent of the way to building nuclear warheads. He explained that Iran would be 90 percent of the way to building the Bomb by the spring of 2013 or by summer at the latest. He urged world leaders to take decisive action to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat immediately, and he made it clear that if they did not, Israel would soon be forced to act in its own self-defense.[12]

Never had Netanyahu personally been so specific with regard to the countdown to war.

Chapter Two

Is Israel Bluffing?

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s plane touched down at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City on Sunday, September 23, 2012. Amid a massive cordon of security protection provided by the U.S. Secret Service, the FBI, and local and state law enforcement, the fifty-five-year-old leader stepped off the plane, flashed his trademark smile to the waiting media, and ducked into a bulletproof vehicle for the high-speed motorcade ride into the city.

When he arrived at the tony Warwick Hotel at 65 West Fifty-Fourth Street—described by its owners as “a refined jewel in the heart of Midtown Manhattan” and an “oasis of quiet luxury” with its “European-style elegance, vintage charm, and stately ambience”—Ahmadinejad found himself greeted by hundreds of protestors.[13]

“We want him to see he’s not welcome here,” said Nathan Carleton, spokesman for the group United Against Nuclear Iran, who helped organize the protestors.[14]

Daniel Mariaschin, a senior executive of B’nai B’rith International, a Jewish human rights advocacy group, was also behind the protest. He said his organization was not only deeply opposed to Ahmadinejad’s visit but to the Warwick Hotel’s willingness to accept him as a guest. “No more than you would host in your home a criminal, why would you make it easy here for a rogue regime? . . . U.S. businesses are under no obligation to accept the business of any delegation to the U.N. General Assembly.”[15]

The protestors, however, didn’t bother Ahmadinejad in the slightest. To the contrary, he seemed to revel in his notoriety, eager to dominate headlines in the heart of the media epicenter of the nation he has long called the “Great Satan.” Ahmadinejad had come from Tehran to deliver his eighth consecutive address to the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly. Given that he was coming to the end of his second term in the summer of 2013 and was prohibited by Iranian law from seeking a third, this was likely to be his last address—and many expected it to be his most extreme.

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned Ahmadinejad that incendiary speech would not be tolerated. “The secretary-general drew attention to the potentially harmful consequences of inflammatory rhetoric, counter-rhetoric, and threats from various countries in the Middle East,” noted Ban’s media office in a statement.[16]

The Iranian president, however, paid no more attention to this warning than to any of the sternly worded U.N. Security Council resolutions passed over the years telling Iran to stop enriching uranium in defiance of international law. Through his translator at the Warwick Hotel, Ahmadinejad wasted no time in announcing that Israel must be “eliminated” from the earth.[17] He also refused to renounce the statement of a senior Revolutionary Guard commander in Tehran who said a day earlier that Iran was considering a preemptive military strike against Israel and an attack on American military bases, and that a war with Israel could turn into World War III.[18]

Was Iran truly planning a preemptive attack on Israel? Could it be a nuclear attack? Or were Iran’s leaders merely saber rattling?

As he continued his press conference, the diminutive Iranian leader dismissed any concern over a potential Israeli preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying, “Fundamentally we do not take seriously the threats of the Zionists.” He added, “Iran has been around for the last seven, ten thousand years. They (the Israelis) have been occupying those territories for the last sixty to seventy years, with the support and force of the Westerners. They have no roots there in history. . . . Iran will not be damaged with foreign bombs.”[19]

Was Ahmadinejad bluffing, or did he really not believe Israel was preparing to strike? One thing was certain: he was echoing the party line from Tehran.

In July, Iran’s Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran’s enemies—namely the U.S. and Israel—would not dare attack Iran.[20] The Supreme Leader then vowed, as he has repeatedly for more than a decade, that Israel would soon be annihilated. “The fake Zionist (regime) will disappear from the landscape of geography,” he declared.[21]

Khamenei’s complete dismissal of the possibility of an Israeli attack was quickly reiterated by Iranian defense minister General Ahmad Vahidi, who told reporters in August that Israel “definitely doesn’t have what it takes to endure Iran’s might and will” and described Israel’s talk of a preemptive strike against Iran as “a sign of weakness” by “brainless leaders” trying to divert attention away from Israel’s own domestic and international problems.[22]

That same month, an official from Iran’s foreign ministry further reinforced that view. “In our calculations, we aren’t taking these claims [of an Israeli strike] very seriously because we see them as hollow and baseless,” said spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast. “Even if some officials in the illegitimate regime (Israel) want to carry out such a stupid action, there are those inside (the Israeli government) who won’t allow it because they know they would suffer very severe consequences from such an act.”[23]

On September 18, Iranian foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi continued the mantra. “Israel can’t carry out an attack against such a big country, and it knows that,” Salehi said, describing Israeli talk of a preemptive strike as “empty.”[24]

What the Pundits Are Saying

Iran’s leaders were not alone in dismissing Israel’s willingness or capacity to hit Iran. Throughout 2012, a wide range of Middle East experts, pundits, and government officials in the United States, the Arab world, and even some in Israel agreed that Netanyahu was not going to order a strike against Iran—certainly not anytime soon.

- “No, I don’t see Israel striking [Iran]”—retired U.S. General Wesley Clark on September 26, 2012.[25]

- “We haven’t discussed war scenarios simply because we don’t expect any war. . . . The U.S. is not willing to attack Iran, and Israel won’t dare attack a strong country like Iran”—Azzam Al-Ahmed, an aide to Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas on September 19, 2012.[26]

- “Why Netanyahu Will Not Attack Iran”—op-ed headline in Jerusalem Post, September 13, 2012.[27]

- “We won’t see military action against Iran in 2012”—Israeli Kadima party leader (opposition leader) Shaul Mofaz on September 11, 2012.[28]

- “Four Reasons Why Israel Probably Won’t Attack Iran”—headline in the London Telegraph on August 23, 2012.[29]

- “New Evidence That Israel Is Bluffing about Iran”—headline in The Atlantic on August 15, 2012.[30]

- “Why Israel Won’t Attack Iran”—headline in The Diplomat magazine on August 22, 2012.[31]

- “Exclusive—Waters: Bibi Lying, Won’t Act without U.S.”—video of Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) speaking to antiwar activists in California in March 2012.[32]

- “Bibi Is Bluffing”—headline in Slate magazine on March 6, 2012.[33]

- “Netanyahu Won’t Attack Iran”—headline in Foreign Policy magazine on March 2, 2012.[34]

Are such analysts correct? Are all the warnings by top Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, merely a bluff?

The Case against an Israeli Strike

While many observers argued that Netanyahu would not order a strike in the near future, others added strenuously that he should not order such a strike.

Dan Raviv and Yossi Melman are first-rate journalists and Middle East analysts. Raviv is a Washington correspondent for CBS News. Melman is an award-winning correspondent for Haaretz, the “New York Times of Israel.” Together they have coauthored three books.[35] On July 11, 2012, they published an article in Tablet magazine headlined “Why Israel Won’t Bomb Iran.”[36] They did not rule out the possibility of an eventual Israeli strike, but they argued it would not be soon and should not happen at all.

They made three main points.

1. There is no great urgency. Israeli intelligence estimates suggest that it would take at least another year for Iran to assemble its first bomb and still another year to attach it to a missile.

2. There is much that Israel can do and is doing without actually going to war. Moreover, Israel’s intelligence agencies are enjoying an unprecedentedly strong partnership with the CIA and other Western security agencies.

3. Most Israeli military analysts agree that Israel’s capabilities are so limited that bombing Iran would only delay Iran’s nuclear program, not destroy it. The United States has supplied Israel with bunker-buster bombs, but to be prepared to strike Iran, the Israelis would need at least two hundred more advanced bombs in addition to other war tools such as midair-refueling tanker planes.

Jeffrey Goldberg is another astute Middle East expert as well as a journalist who is personally close to Netanyahu. Indeed, he has written some of the most informative and perceptive articles in recent years about the thinking of the prime minister and his inner circle on the Iran issue. On August 11, 2012, exactly one month after the Raviv-Melman article, Goldberg published a column in the magazine The Atlantic headlined “7 Reasons Why Israel Should Not Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities.”[37] Goldberg made clear he was not saying Netanyahu would not order a strike. “I’m not going to guess whether Israel will strike Iran tomorrow, next month, next year, or never,” he wrote. “I believe it is highly plausible that Netanyahu and [Israeli defense minister Ehud] Barak will do so at some point over the next twelve months, if current trends remain the same.” But Goldberg wanted to be clear he believed a preemptive strike would be a terrible idea and should be avoided at all costs.

He made seven points:

1. Innocent people will die.

2. It might not work at all.

3. Even if a strike does work, it may only delay the Iranian program, and it might even speed it up.

4. An Israeli strike may cause a surge of sympathy for Iran among Sunni Arabs, who right now despise the regime for, among other reasons, supporting the Assad government in Damascus.

5. A strike could trigger an overt war without an obvious end, and an all-out missile war could escalate into something especially horrific. In essence, Israel would be trading a theoretical war later for an actual war now.

6. A strike could be a disaster for the U.S.-Israel relationship. It might not be—there is little sympathy for the Iranian regime among Americans (except on the extreme leftmost and rightmost margins), and there is plenty of sympathy for Israel. But an attack could trigger an armed Iranian response against American targets.

7. The current American president is deeply serious about preventing Iran from going nuclear. Many experts believe he would eventually use force (more effectively, presumably, than Israel) to stop Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold. His position will be severely compromised if Israel jumps the gun and attacks now.

What should one make of such analyses? The writers who made them are certainly experts in Middle East affairs. They are experienced. Their arguments are interesting and in some cases compelling. But in the end, are they right? Are these arguments that Netanyahu and his closest advisors would find not simply compelling but convincing?

The answer depends on what Netanyahu truly believes about the nature of the Iranian leadership and what he believes about the magnitude and imminence of the threat Iran now poses.

Chapter Three

What Netanyahu Believes

“How much time does the West have to make a decision to act decisively to stop Iran from building and deploying operational nuclear warheads?”

This was the question I asked Benjamin Netanyahu as I interviewed him in March of 2007 at his office in Tel Aviv.

“Not much,” he replied. “We are running out of time. I can’t tell you if it’s a period of months or a few years. Certainly no more than a few years.”

At the time, I noted that India and Pakistan—two friends of the United States—had both tested nuclear weapons in the spring of 1998 within days of each other, stunning analysts in most Western intelligence agencies, including the CIA. Such analysts knew those countries were slowly developing their nuclear technology. But they had no idea that either country—much less both—had completed building nuclear warheads and was ready and able to successfully test them. Given that Netanyahu was prime minister of Israel during this period, I asked how he viewed such nuclear surprises and how they factored into his thinking about how to protect Israel.

Netanyahu agreed that the Indian and Pakistani nuclear breakouts were sobering because they showed how even the best intelligence agencies can miss crucial developments—even when they are closely monitoring the situation. He noted that a full two years before the Indian and Pakistani surprises, he had begun to warn world leaders publicly and privately that a nuclear showdown with Iran was coming and that Iran must be prevented from building atomic weapons at all costs.

“Among the first things I did, after I was elected prime minister [in 1996], was to speak before a joint session of the U.S. Congress,” he explained. “I said that the greatest danger the world faces is the arming of Iran with nuclear weapons. What was true ten years ago is doubly true today—not doubly, triply. But I couldn’t get the leading powers of the world—including the U.S. administration at the time—to focus on this danger and to stop the shipment of nuclear and ballistic technology to Iran from many countries, including Russia. I could not get the U.S. to focus on this. I think today people understand the danger. It’s much more advanced. It has moved forward. Could we be surprised tomorrow? Well, we were surprised by the extent of Libya’s advancement in its nuclear program. Happily, it was dismantled, probably as a result of the deterrent effect of [Libyan leader Muammar] Gaddafi seeing Saddam Hussein [captured] in a hole [and] realizing that he too could hang by the end of a rope. But no such deterrence necessarily works on the true believers in Tehran. Therefore, our focus should not be on deterrence but on prevention.”

Netanyahu then explained to me why the stakes were so high. The Iranian leaders, he said, “want to concentrate on completing their nuclear program because once they have that, then they could threaten the West in ways that are unimaginable today. They could take over the Persian Gulf on all its sides and take control of the oil reserves of the world. They could topple Saudi Arabia and Jordan in short order and, of course, Iraq. All your internal debates in America on [the future of] Iraq would be irrelevant because nuclear-armed Iran would subordinate Iraq in two seconds. Then they would threaten to create a second Holocaust in Israel and proceed on their idea of building a global empire, producing twenty-five atomic bombs a year—250 bombs in a decade—with missiles that they are already working on [and that they want to develop] to reach the eastern seaboard of the United States. Everything else pales in comparison to this development. This has to be stopped, for the sake of the world, not only for the sake of Israel.”

At the time of this particular interview, Netanyahu was not prime minister of Israel. His rival Ehud Olmert was. Netanyahu was not even a cabinet member. He had been shut out of the government since Olmert and Ariel Sharon left the Likud Party in 2005 to create their own centrist Kadima Party, splitting and essentially gutting Likud. At the time, Netanyahu was a member of the Knesset and a member of the opposition. His Likud Party held only twelve seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament. A shell of its former greatness, Likud was in its weakest political position since its creation by Menachem Begin in 1973, when the party captured a stunning thirty-nine seats.

Today, of course, everything is different. Netanyahu is no longer an observer; he is Israel’s commander in chief. The decision to stop Iran—or not—is not someone else’s to make; it is his.

Who Is Benjamin Netanyahu?

What surprises people who don’t know Netanyahu’s history is that in his younger years he never planned on a career in politics—much less ascending to the prime minister’s office. To the contrary, he wanted to go into business. Though he did briefly study politics at Harvard, he actually holds a bachelor’s degree in architecture and a master’s degree in management from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His first jobs out of college weren’t in government; they were in business. From 1976 to 1982, Netanyahu worked in the private sector, including a stint with the Boston Consulting Group, a global business consultancy, where he first met and worked side by side with Mitt Romney, who years later would win the Republican nomination for president of the United States.

Born in Tel Aviv on October 21, 1949, just a year after the prophetic rebirth of the State of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu—widely known to family and friends by his nickname, “Bibi”—entered the world in the immediate aftermath of his nation’s War of Independence. He was born into a somewhat-secular Jewish family, one that was, like so many Jewish families, reeling from the horrors of the Holocaust. His father, Benzion Netanyahu, was an acclaimed Jewish historian. Bibi, his older brother, Yonatan, and his younger brother, Iddo, were taught from an early age that Jews had been isolated and hunted and persecuted and murdered throughout history and had to learn to defend themselves and the land of their forefathers.

“Jewish history is a history of holocausts,” Benzion Netanyahu once said.[38]

It was a truth Bibi never forgot. After Yonatan became a commander in the country’s most elite army unit, the Sayeret Matkal, Bibi worked hard to secure a coveted spot in “the Unit” as well—a spot he eventually earned. When “Yoni” was killed in an operation to rescue Israeli hostages held in Entebbe, Uganda, in 1976, Bibi was deeply shaken by the loss. But he resolved to uphold his brother’s legacy of defending the Jewish people.

In a fascinating twist of history, it was during this period in the mid-1970s that Bibi got to know Ehud Barak and Shimon Peres. Barak was Yoni’s superior in the IDF, and for a time, he was Bibi’s commander as well. Shimon Peres, meanwhile, was Israel’s defense minister. When Yoni was killed in Entebbe, it was Barak who personally informed Bibi of the news, and Barak and Peres together helped comfort and honor the Netanyahu family. Both men attended Yoni’s funeral and played critical roles in a formative time of Bibi’s life.

That said, Peres and Barak were both members of the left-of-center Labor Party. In time, Bibi gravitated to the right-of-center Likud Party. When Bibi first became prime minister in 1996, he did so by defeating Peres in an incredibly narrow election that came down to just a handful of votes. When Bibi lost the premiership in 1999, he did so to Barak, who was suddenly a fast-rising star on the Israeli political scene.

Yet upon being elected prime minister again in 2009, Bibi immediately reached out privately and sincerely to both men. Promising to put past political rivalry aside, Bibi asked Barak to join his government as defense minister in order to design a feasible plan of attack against Iran and to prepare the Israel Defense Forces for the most difficult mission of its modern existence. Few expected Barak to say yes, given the deep political divisions and scars of past fights between the two men. Indeed, most grassroots Labor Party members were apoplectic at the idea that Barak would even consider Netanyahu’s offer. They despised Netanyahu and urged Barak to steer clear of a deal. Yet in stunning defiance of his party’s animosity, Barak said yes.

Peres, meanwhile, is Israel’s president and at eighty-nine is both Bibi’s and Barak’s elder statesman. All three men still harbor strong disagreements over policy and politics. But all three men see the existential danger Israel faces today. Their relationships were forged in the most devastating personal crisis of Bibi’s life, and in recent years these men have found themselves working together closely to prevent Iran from getting the Bomb.[39]

How Does Netanyahu See the Enemy?

Central to understanding how Netanyahu makes decisions is his view of the nature of the enemy Israel and the world faces. At his core, he believes the mullahs in Iran are driven by radical Islamic theology as well as by immense personal and national ambition.

To understand the current Iranian regime, Netanyahu believes one must first understand the nature of the Islamic Revolution that occurred in 1979. At the time, and in the years that followed, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, vowed to establish a global Islamic empire with Iran as its head.

“The governments of the world should know that . . . Islam will be victorious in all the countries of the world, and Islam and the teachings of the Qur’an will prevail all over the world,” Khomeini declared in January 1979, just before he returned to Tehran from exile in Paris to seize power.[40]

The following year, once in full control of Iran, Khomeini said, “We must strive to export our Revolution throughout the world.”[41] During this time, he declared war on the United States and Israel, and every Friday when he delivered his weekly sermon in Tehran, hundreds of thousands of Shia Muslims joined him in chanting, “Death to America! Death to Israel!”

Since then, successive leaders of Iran have repeatedly vowed to annihilate the “Little Satan” and the “Great Satan.”

“It is the mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to erase Israel from the map of the region,” said Iran’s current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in 2001.[42]

“One bomb is enough to destroy Israel. . . . In due time the Islamic world will have a military nuclear device,” declared then–Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani that same year.[43]

“Israel must be wiped off the map,” Iran’s current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, famously insisted in 2005.[44]

In 2006, Ahmadinejad added, “Like it or not, the Zionist regime is heading toward annihilation. . . . The Zionist regime is a rotten, dried tree that will be eliminated by one storm . . . [because] its existence has harmed the dignity of Islamic nations.”[45]

In 2008, Ahmadinejad vowed that “the Zionist regime (Israel), with a 60-year record of genocide, plunder, invasion, and betrayal is about to die and will soon be erased from the geographical scene.”[46]

These are themes Iran’s leaders continue to hold and espouse publicly to this day. In February 2012, Supreme Leader Khamenei once again vowed publicly that the “cancerous tumor” of Israel “should be cut and will be cut” out of the Middle East.[47]

In August 2012, Ahmadinejad declared, “Anyone who loves freedom and justice must strive for the annihilation of the Zionist regime in order to pave the way for world justice and freedom.”[48]

Just a few days later, Khamenei reiterated that the greatest problem facing the Muslim world was how to handle Israel. “The great powers have dominated the destiny of the Islamic countries for years and . . . installed the Zionist cancerous tumor in the heart of the Islamic world,” Khamenei said, adding that “many of the problems facing the Muslim world are due to the existence of the Zionist regime.”[49]

Netanyahu believes such rhetoric is not mere rhetoric. To the contrary, he is certain that the Iranian leaders truly believe in the annihilation of Judeo-Christian civilization and are working to acquire the means to accomplish their genocidal goals. For decades, he notes, the leaders of Iran have feverishly sought to build, buy, or steal nuclear warheads and the ballistic missiles and terrorist networks necessary to deliver those warheads. The latest reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency indicate that Iran is continuing to illegally enrich uranium in violation of numerous U.N. Security Council resolutions. Iran currently has enough uranium to build at least seven nuclear warheads, possibly more. The IAEA also has evidence suggesting Iran is actively seeking to build nuclear warheads and attach these warheads to ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel.

Eschatology and Iranian Foreign Policy

What’s more, Netanyahu does not believe the Iranian regime can be deterred from using nuclear weapons if they acquire them. He is deeply concerned that the current leaders of Iran are driven by Shia Islamic End Times theology that tells them either to destroy Judeo-Christian civilization as we know it in order to hasten the coming of their so-called messiah, known as the Twelfth Imam or the Mahdi, or to prepare weapons of mass destruction for the Twelfth Imam to use to destroy the Western alliance on his own before establishing a global Islamic kingdom known as the Caliphate.

“I think the West misunderstood, and still misunderstands, the threat of radical Islam,” Netanyahu told me. “It is a fanatic, messianic ideology that seeks to have an apocalyptic battle for world supremacy with the West. It seeks to correct what it sees—and its disciples see—as an accident of history, where the West has risen and Islam has declined. The correction is supposed to be done by the resurrection of an Islamic empire and the acquisition of nuclear weapons and the use of nuclear weapons, if necessary, to obliterate Islam’s enemies, and to subjugate the rest. This is a pathological ideology, much like Nazism was. And it poses a threat, in my judgment, in many ways bigger than Nazism because Hitler embarked on a world conflict and then sought to achieve nuclear weapons, whereas the leading radical Islamic regime, Iran, is seeking to first acquire nuclear weapons and then embark on a world conflict. That is what is not yet understood in the West—and certainly, if it is understood, it is not acted upon.”

“Ahmadinejad is driven by an apocalyptic theory,” I agreed, “believing there are just a couple of years before the end of the world and the coming of the Islamic messiah. In your view, how is that driving Iranian foreign policy?”

“I think the world changes once Iran acquires nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu replied. “With this fanatic regime, it is almost akin to the Branch Davidians under David Koresh. . . . You know, it’s one thing if you have a crazy sect stuck up in some commune in Oregon or in a ranch in Waco, Texas. But when the wacko from Waco gets nuclear weapons and he wants to obliterate the United States and its allies, then you start worrying, and that’s what is happening in Iran. You think that these people are normal. You think that Iran would conform to the conceptions of deterrence and careful calculation of cost and benefit. But in fact, it is part of the Shiite stream of radical Islam. You’ve already seen what the Sunni stream does, which is to smash into buildings in Manhattan with collective suicide. And there’s no reason to believe that the militant Shiites, once they have atomic weapons, will not be suicidal. They say openly that they intend to remove Israel, the ‘Little Satan.’ But remember that their goal is to get the United States, the ‘Big Satan.’ We [in Israel] are just a station, one station, on the way to world conquest. And to have such a regime that believes in apocalyptic Armageddon with the West—in which millions will die on both sides, but the Muslim millions go to a Muslim heaven with all the trappings—to have that crazy ideology in charge of a country that is developing atomic weapons is unbelievably dangerous, and it should stop. Everything else is secondary to this.”

Netanyahu continued, “I find it hard saying this, because I said in the early nineties that the radical Muslims would bring down the World Trade Center, and the response was no response at all. And I am saying here, now, in the first decade of the twenty-first century, that the world faces an enormous danger should Ahmadinejad’s Iran acquire atomic weapons. It is not merely a danger to my own country. For the reasons of full disclosure, I tell you, ‘Yes, it is a danger to my own country.’ It’s a danger to my own country the way Hitler was a danger to the Jews. Yes, of course, he went after the Jews, but then he went after everyone else. And that’s exactly what you have with Iran. It has to be stopped—now.”

Chapter Four

A Clear and Present Danger

Has Netanyahu changed his assessment of the danger posed by the End Times theology—or eschatology—of the Iranian regime since that interview in 2007?

In a word, no.

Just hours before he was sworn in for his second term as prime minister on March 31, 2009, he issued the exact same warning about the toxic combination of Iran’s eschatology and technology in an interview with Jeffrey Goldberg, columnist for The Atlantic magazine. It would become Netanyahu’s first published interview as the new leader of the Jewish State.

Goldberg wrote, “Benjamin Netanyahu laid down a challenge for Barack Obama. The American president, he said, must stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons—and quickly—or an imperiled Israel may be forced to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities itself. . . . He said the Iranian nuclear challenge represents a ‘hinge of history’ and added that ‘Western civilization’ will have failed if Iran is allowed to develop nuclear weapons. . . . ‘You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran. . . . Since the dawn of the nuclear age, we have not had a fanatic regime that might put its zealotry above its self-interest. People say that they’ll behave like any other nuclear power. Can you take the risk? Can you assume that?’”[50]

More Troubling Indicators of Iran’s Eschatology

Since Netanyahu took office as prime minister in 2009, new evidence has continued to emerge revealing how deeply Iran’s top leaders hold this eschatology and how such End Times theology is driving their foreign policy.

In July 2010, for example, Khamenei told Iranians that he had personally met with the Twelfth Imam.[51] Who or what did Khamenei see? Was it a dream? A vision? Or an actual flesh-and-blood person? Why was Khamenei so convinced that whomever he was meeting with was the mystical so-called Islamic messiah who reportedly disappeared back in the tenth century? Khamenei never publicly explained himself. Yet a few days later, he claimed to be the personal representative of the Twelfth Imam on earth, as well as the personal representative of the Prophet Muhammad, and he stated that all Muslims must “obey him.”[52]

In the spring of 2011, Western media revealed that Khamenei and his regime had released and were widely distributing a documentary film about Shiite eschatology called The Coming Is Near.[53] The film stated that the Islamic messiah known as the Twelfth Imam or the Mahdi would soon appear on earth to usher in or oversee the destruction of Israel, the establishment of a global Islamic Caliphate, and the end of days. The film explained why leaders of the “Twelver” movement saw the 2011 revolutions and uprisings in Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and elsewhere throughout the Middle East and North Africa as prophetic signs consistent with Islamic End Times teachings and proof that the Twelfth Imam would soon appear. Moreover, the film identified Khamenei and Ahmadinejad as specific End Times figures foretold in Shia prophecies.

The film was screened and green-lighted at the highest levels of the Iranian government, indicating that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad approve of their depiction as End Times figures and believe their eschatology is being vindicated by current events in the Middle East. It was also screened throughout Iran for military officers and soldiers as well as for paramilitary units, providing fresh evidence that Iran’s leaders were preparing their forces for an apocalyptic, genocidal war against Israel, the United States, and the West and encouraging them not to fear because, in their view, Shia Muslims are on the winning side of history.

In July 2012, Khamenei told Iranians and the Muslim world to prepare for war and “the end of times” because the arrival of the Twelfth Imam was drawing near: “The issue of Imam Mahdi is of utmost importance, and his reappearance has been clearly stated in our holy religion of Islam. We must study and remind ourselves of the end of times and Imam Mahdi’s era. . . . We must prepare the environment for the coming so that the great leader will come.”[54]

Ahmadinejad’s End Times Speech to the U.N.

On September 26, 2012, Ahmadinejad delivered his eighth annual address to the opening fall session of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City. In his speech, he once again called for the end of the “hegemonic” powers of the United States and Israel, whom he described as “the uncivilized Zionists.” He also said the world would “soon” see new “global management” by the Twelfth Imam and his deputy, Jesus Christ.[55]

In each of his past U.N. speeches, Ahmadinejad prayed for the soon coming of the so-called Islamic messiah. This time he went much further, offering his most detailed explanation to date of his Shia Islamic eschatology and his understanding of the coming rule of the Twelfth Imam. Ahmadinejad told the world leaders gathered in Manhattan that he had come this time “to voice the divine and humanitarian message . . . to you and to the whole world. God Almighty has promised us a man of kindness, a man who loves people and loves absolute justice, a man who is a perfect human being and is named Imam Al-Mahdi, a man who will come in the company of Jesus Christ, peace be upon him, and the righteous.” Calling the Mahdi “the Ultimate Savior,” Ahmadinejad said his arrival on earth “will mark a new beginning, a rebirth, and a resurrection. It will be the beginning of peace, lasting security, and genuine life.”

Ahmadinejad said the coming reign of the Twelfth Imam on earth “will bring about an eternally bright future for mankind, not by force or waging wars but through thought awakening and developing kindness in everyone.” The Iranian leader did not offer a specific timetable, but he did say the “sweet scent” of the Mahdi’s global reign “will soon reach all the territories in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the U.S.”

Despite Ahmadinejad’s insistence that the Twelfth Imam’s reign would come without war, Shia eschatology experts say the opposite is true. Islamic theologians say Muslim political leaders are supposed to be setting into motion the annihilation of Judeo-Christian civilization as we know it and creating conditions of chaos and carnage that will hasten the arrival of the Twelfth Imam, as I documented in my nonfiction book Inside the Revolution and dramatized in a trilogy of political thrillers, titled The Twelfth Imam, The Tehran Initiative, and Damascus Countdown.[56] The Mahdi is then supposed to turn all these wars and killings to his advantage and establish justice and peace. It is this Shia End Times theology that is driving Iranian foreign policy today. This is why the mullahs in Tehran are working so hard to pursue nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them—to prepare the way for the rise of this Islamic kingdom.

It is not surprising, then, that Ahmadinejad told reporters upon arriving in New York that Israel must be “eliminated” from the earth and didn’t deny that Iran was actively considering a preemptive strike against Israel to begin “World War Three,” as one of his military commanders had asserted earlier that week.

Netanyahu’s Response

The day after Ahmadinejad’s incendiary speech, Netanyahu addressed the U.N. General Assembly. He told world leaders that Iran is 70 percent of the way to building its first nuclear bomb and could complete its work by spring 2013 or by summer at the latest. Netanyahu said it was getting “very late” to stop “Iran’s apocalyptic leaders” from acquiring the Bomb. He called for the world to impose “a clear red line” on Iran, stating precisely at what point Iran’s actions would provoke a military response. He said he did not have confidence that even the best intelligence agencies would know exactly when Iran had built its first nuclear warhead. The goal, he insisted, has to be to stop Iran from enriching enough uranium to be able to build its first warhead. Time to accomplish that, he made clear, is running out fast.

“Deterrence worked with the Soviets, because every time the Soviets faced a choice between their ideology and their survival, they chose their survival,” Netanyahu said. “But deterrence may not work with the Iranians once they get nuclear weapons. There’s a great scholar of the Middle East, Professor Bernard Lewis, who put it best. He said that for the ayatollahs of Iran, mutually assured destruction is not a deterrent; it’s an inducement. Iran’s apocalyptic leaders believe that a medieval holy man will reappear in the wake of a devastating holy war, thereby ensuring that their brand of radical Islam will rule the earth. That’s not just what they believe. That’s what is actually guiding their policies and their actions. Just listen to Ayatollah Rafsanjani who said, I quote: ‘The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything; however, it would only harm the Islamic world. . . . It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.’ Not irrational—and that’s coming from one of the so-called moderates of Iran.”[57]

The Zero Hour Is Approaching

Netanyahu realizes what most world leaders do not: that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad are true believers in Shia “Twelver” eschatology. They believe the wind is at their back. They believe Allah is on their side. They don’t think they are vulnerable to U.S. or Israeli attacks. To the contrary, they believe their cause is ascendant. They are convinced that their mission is to prepare the way for the “Promised One.” They believe they will burn in the fires of hell if they are not found faithful when the Mahdi publicly emerges to build his Caliphate. They believe, therefore, that they must build a nuclear arsenal capable of creating chaos and carnage in order to hasten the coming of the Twelfth Imam.

This, Netanyahu believes, is what makes Iran so dangerous. In light of the Iranian leadership’s End Times theology, Netanyahu is not surprised that the mullahs in Tehran have not budged an inch during round after round of diplomatic negotiations. Nor is he surprised that Iran’s leaders have not been dissuaded from their nuclear ambitions by round after round of new economic sanctions. After all, what incentives could the international community possibly offer to cause Iran’s leaders to give up their pursuit of nuclear weapons if concession means risking the fires of hell for eternity?

What does surprise Netanyahu is that neither the American president nor any other Western leader seems to understand or appreciate the nature of the enemy they face. They do not seem to realize that Shia End Times theology is driving Iranian foreign policy and that once Iran acquires nuclear weapons, its leaders will be inclined not only to threaten to use them but to actually use them to accomplish their End Times scenario.

Should Israel Wait for America to Act?

Every day Tehran gets closer to accomplishing its genocidal ambitions. Yet Netanyahu and his inner circle have slowly, reluctantly, painfully come to the assessment that it is unlikely that an American president will take decisive military action to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat.

For one thing, while the majority of Americans don’t want to see Iran acquire nuclear weapons, many Americans also feel two wars in the Middle East in the last decade—one in Afghanistan and another in Iraq—have been enough. President George W. Bush declared Iran’s leaders members of the “axis of evil.” Yet as committed as he was to defeating radical Islam, defending Israel, and promoting democracy in the Middle East, even he did not take decisive action to neutralize Iran’s growing nuclear threat to the U.S., Israel, and the world.

President Barack Obama, meanwhile, has consistently declared that he and his administration will not allow Iran to get the Bomb. Yet Obama has refused to set a deadline for Iran to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions, stop enriching uranium, and come clean on the military dimensions of its nuclear program. The Obama administration has also refused Israeli requests to set American “red lines”—clearly defined and measurable elements of Iranian behavior that would trigger decisive U.S. military action to neutralize the growing Iranian nuclear threat. Instead, the president and his senior advisors have applied enormous public and private pressure on Israel not to launch its own preemptive military strike against Iran.

A Troubled Relationship

In November 2009, I gave a speech titled “Train Wreck: The Coming Collision of U.S.-Israeli Relations.” I noted that just as the Iranian nuclear threat was worsening, we were currently witnessing the worst strains in the relationship between the U.S. and Israel in memory. Polls in late 2008 showed 88 percent of Israelis believed President Bush was pro-Israel. By May 2009, however, a Jerusalem Post poll found that only 31 percent of Israelis believed President Obama was pro-Israel. By August 2009, another Jerusalem Post poll found that only 4 percent of Israelis believed President Obama was pro-Israel. What triggered such plummeting confidence in the Obama White House? The answer can be found in a series of actions and statements by the president and his senior advisors.[58]

During the presidential primaries, then-Senator Obama described Iran as a “tiny country” that didn’t pose much of a threat. He vowed to enter direct talks with Ahmadinejad and senior Iranian officials without preconditions. Obama later changed his mind and said Iran was a “grave threat,” but his initial analysis raised real doubts among Israelis about his understanding of the situation.

As president, Obama was determined to pursue a policy of “direct engagement” with Iran even in the absence of any evidence that Iran’s radical Islamic leadership wanted a better relationship with the U.S. and the West. Despite repeated outreaches by the White House, Iran never reciprocated. Rather, Tehran accelerated its nuclear and ballistic missile development programs and became more belligerent toward the U.S. and Israel.

Even so, Obama refused to impose “crippling” economic sanctions on Iran despite promising to do so and despite the revelation of a third secret Iranian nuclear facility, this one located on a military base near the religious city of Qom. What’s more, in May 2009, General James Jones, the president’s national security advisor, appeared on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos and referred to “Israel’s preoccupation with Iran as an existential threat.” That same month, then–CIA director Leon Panetta was sent to Israel, reportedly to warn Israeli leaders not to launch a preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities without permission from the U.S., though he offered no proof the U.S. had an effective strategy to stop Iran from getting the Bomb.

In the summer of 2009, President Obama did precious little to support the reformers on the streets of Tehran after a rigged reelection of Ahmadinejad, saying he refused to “meddle” in other countries’ affairs. Yet the Obama administration seems perfectly willing to “meddle” in Israeli affairs. In fact, General Jones told a European diplomat that Obama “will convince Israel to compromise on the Palestinian question.” He insisted that the Obama administration “will not push Israel under the wheels of a bus, but we will be more forceful toward Israel than we have been under Bush.” Since then, Obama has applied intense pressure on Israel to stop building, improving, and expanding Jewish neighborhoods in east Jerusalem and the West Bank. The president also called for a comprehensive final peace treaty in which Israel would return to its 1967 borders, a requirement that would force Israel to divide its capital city of Jerusalem and give up the strategically vital Jordan Valley.

Then came the disaster in March 2010, when many Americans and Israelis believe Obama treated Netanyahu with terrible disrespect and a breach of protocol. At one point during a meeting in the White House, Netanyahu refused to sign a document agreeing to divide Jerusalem and return Israel to pre-1967 lines. Obama, in turn, walked out of the meeting, went upstairs to the residence, and refused to come back, leaving Netanyahu and his senior aides alone to figure out what to do next. Obama refused to have dinner with Netanyahu or have a photo opportunity with him or hold a joint press conference—all standard operating procedures for a friend and strategic ally like the leader of Israel.[59]

“This was a working meeting among friends,” White House advisor David Axelrod tried to spin. “There was no snub intended.”[60]

Most American friends of Israel saw things much differently. Certainly the Israelis did.

The Romney Option

Would a President Mitt Romney be more likely to order a strike against Iran if he were elected? During the campaign, the governor has clearly positioned himself as a strong supporter of the State of Israel. Netanyahu certainly feels comfortable with Romney—their relationship goes back to when they worked together at the Boston Consulting Group in the 1970s. But even if Romney wins, Netanyahu knows the new president would be unlikely to launch a war against Iran in the early weeks or months of his administration. First, Romney would need to hire his national security team. Second, he and his team would need to review all the intelligence currently available on Iran. Third, they would need to develop a war plan and move military assets into position. All of this takes time, and even if Romney is inclined to go down this road, Netanyahu may not feel he has that much time to wait.

Would a President Romney strongly back an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, even if he did not feel ready or able to order an American strike in time? Based on the available evidence, it would appear that Netanyahu believes the answer is yes. Yet Netanyahu may not feel he can wait for the American elections on November 6.

One thing, therefore, is clear to Netanyahu: the most dangerous place on the planet right now is the corridor between Tel Aviv and Tehran, and time for action is running out. The lives of more than 100 million people in this corridor are in grave danger. Iran is closing in on nuclear warheads and the means to deliver them. Israel is fiercely committed to preventing this from ever happening. Unless something dramatic happens to avert catastrophe—and happens quickly—all the evidence suggests Israel and Iran are hurtling toward armed conflict that could break out at any moment.

What Would an Israel-Iran War Look Like?

To be sure, such a war could move fast and be over quickly. In 1967, experts fretted over the worst-case scenarios if the Arab forces launched a preemptive strike against Israel or if Israel initiated a first strike against her enemies. In the end, their dire predictions were wrong. The war was over in six days. On the seventh day, the region rested. There was pain and sorrow, but not nearly as much as had been feared.[61]

But one cannot count on best-case scenarios. One must plan for worst-case scenarios. An Israel-Iran war could prove to be the most devastating war in the modern history of the Middle East. What if the entire region is set on fire? What if masses of innocent civilians are killed? What if a refugee crisis erupts? What if friendly governments are destabilized and toppled by radical Islamic jihadists? What if terrorist cells are activated inside the United States, across Europe, and around the world? What if American and other Western embassies are attacked and overrun, as has happened already in Egypt and Libya? What if our people are held hostage, tortured, or murdered? How high will the price of oil and gas skyrocket? How severely will the already-fragile, sputtering global economy—and America’s own struggling economy—be harmed?

If Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities first, how will Iran retaliate? Will the U.S. and our allies be drawn into the conflict? Will Iran try to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows? Will Washington respond? If so, how?

What if the war has cataclysmic unintended consequences? What if an electromagnetic pulse bomb is detonated in the skies over the Middle East? What if chemical or biological weapons are employed? What if nuclear weapons are used? How might the region—and the world—be changed forever?

These are the questions that Netanyahu has thought about and wrestled with for decades and in a very systematic way since coming to power in 2009. How he answers them will be determined in large part by who he is, the events that have shaped his life, and what he believes at his core.

“The Israeli threat to strike Iran militarily if the West fails to stop the nuclear program may, of course, be a tremendous bluff,” columnist Jeffrey Goldberg wrote in 2009. “After all, such threats may just be aimed at motivating President Obama and others to grapple urgently with the problem. But Netanyahu and his advisers seem to believe sincerely that Israel would have difficulty surviving in a Middle East dominated by a nuclear Iran. And they are men predisposed to action. . . . As I waited in the Knesset cafeteria to see Netanyahu, I opened a book he edited of his late brother’s letters. . . . In one letter, Yoni wrote to his teenage brother, then living in America, who had apparently been in a fight after someone directed an anti-Semitic remark at him. ‘I see . . . that you had to release the surplus energy you stored up during the summer. . . . There’s nothing wrong with that. . . . In my opinion, there’s nothing wrong with a good fist fight. . . . Remember what I told you? He who delivers the first blow, wins.’”[62]

Chapter Five

The Road to War

Netanyahu made two critical decisions upon coming to power in 2009.

First, it would be the policy of the State of Israel to be ready for all-out war with Iran. To that end, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to develop a detailed, credible plan of attack to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program should all other measures fail. He ordered the Mossad and other Israeli intelligence agencies to intensify their hunt for Iranian nuclear sites and to prepare precise target lists. He increased the Israeli defense budget. He bought more specialized aerial tankers capable of refueling Israeli fighter jets and bombers in midair. He bought more bunker-buster bombs from the U.S. He bought more missile defense systems and increased research and development funding for even more advanced missile defense systems. And all along, he relentlessly pushed his defense minister, Ehud Barak, to make sure the IDF was absolutely, 100 percent ready to execute its plan on a moment’s notice.

Second, it would simultaneously be the policy of the State of Israel to do everything in its power to avoid all-out war with Iran. To this end, Netanyahu used major speeches to explain the grave danger a nuclear Iran would pose not simply to Israel but to the U.S. and to Europe as well as to the world economy. He pressed American and European leaders to impose more punishing economic sanctions against Iran. He urged American leaders to develop war plans of their own. And right from the beginning of his time in office, he ordered the Mossad to use all means necessary to slow down or stop Iran’s nuclear program to avoid the need for all-out war.

Sources close to Netanyahu say the prime minister does not want to order a strike on Iran. For the last three and a half years, he has hoped that the United States would decisively take the lead in persuading Iran to abandon its nuclear program—or, if that did not work, take military action to neutralize the Iranian threat. Fundamentally, Netanyahu is convinced that the U.S. is best suited for both roles. Historically, the United States has carried far more diplomatic sway with other nations than Israel has. What’s more, should military force become necessary, the U.S. is much better equipped than Israel to deal with Iran. The United States has aircraft carriers, long-range bombers, larger arsenals of bunker-buster bombs, and many more midair-refueling planes. But unfortunately, in President Obama, the Israeli prime minister has seen hesitation instead of decisiveness. There has been tension, not unity, in the relationship between the two leaders. Thus, Netanyahu has felt compelled to work aggressively on both the war-preparation track and the making-war-unnecessary track.

The War in the Shadows

On January 12, 2010, Dr. Masoud Ali-Mohammadi stepped out of his home in a northern suburb of Tehran. The physicist was not simply a professor at the University of Tehran. He was one of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists and was believed to be helping Iran pursue the Bomb.

As Ali-Mohammadi got into his car, a remote-controlled bomb on an adjacent vehicle exploded, killing the physicist instantly.[63]

The assassination made news in Iran and around the world. This was in large part because no Iranian nuclear scientist had died under such shocking circumstances since January 15, 2007. At that time, Dr. Ardeshir Hassanpour, an international expert in uranium enrichment, died mysteriously while working at an Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan. Other Iranian scientists and defense officials had disappeared or defected to the West over the years. But the death of Dr. Ali-Mohammadi struck intelligence analysts and journalists as a potential Israeli escalation against the Iranian nuclear program.

Then, on January 19—precisely one week after Dr. Ali-Mohammadi’s death—another assassination made international headlines. Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, 50, was found murdered in a Dubai hotel room in the United Arab Emirates. Al-Mabhouh was a founder of Hamas’s military wing. He was close to the regime in Tehran. He was responsible for buying weapons from Iran and getting those weapons smuggled into Gaza.[64]

Was it possible al-Mabhouh was also involved somehow in Iran’s nuclear program? Was Israel becoming nervous that Iran was close to getting a warhead and smuggling it into Gaza? Was Netanyahu ordering the Mossad to take the gloves off?

On April 17, 2010, the New York Times published a highly disturbing story headlined “Gates Says U.S. Lacks a Policy to Thwart Iran.” The article reported, “Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has warned in a secret three-page memorandum to top White House officials that the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability, according to government officials familiar with the document. . . . One senior official . . . described the document as ‘a wake-up call.’”[65] The article made public what the Israelis privately thought anyway. It seemed to confirm Netanyahu’s worst fears and motivated him to further intensify his preparations for all-out war.

In August of that year, The Atlantic magazine published a cover story headlined “The Point of No Return” that dominated conversations in Washington for weeks. The article suggested that the Israelis were finalizing strike plans against Iran based on the theory that neither Western action nor Israeli action thus far had been sufficient to derail the Iranian nuclear program.

“I have interviewed roughly 40 current and past Israeli decision makers about a military strike, as well as many American and Arab officials,” wrote Jeffrey Goldberg. “In most of these interviews, I have asked a simple question: what is the percentage chance that Israel will attack the Iranian nuclear program in the near future? Not everyone would answer this question, but a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July. . . . Based on months of interviews, I have come to believe that the administration knows it is a near-certainty that Israel will act against Iran soon if nothing or no one else stops the nuclear program.”[66]

With rumors of war intensifying, September of 2010 brought whispers of an even more dramatic escalation in the covert war against Iran’s nuclear program. A mysterious and devastating computer virus dubbed “Stuxnet”—arguably the most aggressive computer virus in history—was infiltrating computers throughout Iran and metastasizing rapidly. As I reported that fall, “the latest development is a mysterious and highly aggressive ‘malware’ virus of unknown origin that is suddenly plaguing computer systems at nuclear facilities and other industrial plants throughout the Islamic Republic. The effect appears to be so severe that Iran had to announce at least a two-month delay in the launch of online operations at its Bushehr [nuclear] reactor that the Russians helped build. Indeed, an estimated thirty thousand computers in Iran have been infected. Neither the CIA nor Israel’s Mossad has commented, much less claimed credit. Nor are they likely to do so. Perhaps they are not involved. But it may be that the relative success of this ongoing and intensifying covert war inside Iran accounts for why Israel has not taken direct military action thus far.”[67]

“We had anticipated that we could root out the virus within one to two months,” said Hamid Alipour, deputy head of Iran’s Information Technology Co., a part of the ministry of communication and information technology. “But the virus is not stable, and since we started the cleanup process three new versions of it have been spreading.”[68]

The New York Times then ran this intriguing story: “In a Computer Worm, a Possible Biblical Clue.” Wrote reporters John Markoff and David Sanger, “Deep inside the computer worm that some specialists suspect is aimed at slowing Iran’s race for a nuclear weapon lies what could be a fleeting reference to the book of Esther, the Old Testament tale in which the Jews pre-empt a Persian plot to destroy them. That use of the word ‘Myrtus’—which can be read as an allusion to Esther—to name a file inside the code is one of several murky clues that have emerged as computer experts try to trace the origin and purpose of the rogue Stuxnet program. . . . Not surprisingly, the Israelis are not saying whether Stuxnet has any connection to the secretive cyberwar unit it has built inside Israel’s intelligence service. Nor is the Obama administration, which while talking about cyberdefenses has also rapidly ramped up a broad covert program, inherited from the Bush administration, to undermine Iran’s nuclear program.”[69]

While the Stuxnet virus continued to spread that fall and take down large numbers of Iranian nuclear computers as well as uranium processing equipment, the covert war against the Islamic Republic continued in the shadows. On November 29, another Iranian nuclear scientist was mysteriously killed. “A magnetic bomb placed by a motorcyclist killed nuclear physicist Majid Shahriari in his car,” reported ABC News. That same day, a fourth top Iranian nuclear scientist was nearly killed. ABC reported, “Fereydoon Abbasi, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, was wounded when a motorcyclist detonated a magnetic bomb under [his] car by remote control. Abbasi was on a U.N. list of people sanctioned for suspected links to nuclear activities.”[70]

Had War Been Avoided?

“Will Israel launch a preemptive military strike against Iran to stop the current regime from building nuclear weapons, and if so, how soon?” I asked on my blog on December 16, 2010. “That’s a question I have been asked throughout this fall’s book tour for The Twelfth Imam. As we end 2010, my sense is that the Stuxnet computer virus, which has infected more than thirty thousand Iranian computers and brought Iranian enrichment of uranium almost to a standstill for the time being, the recent assassination of a top Iranian nuclear scientist, the near assassination of another top Iranian nuclear scientist, and the effect of new economic sanctions are all having a significant impact. Anything is possible, of course, but some experts I’m talking to believe that there is a little more breathing room, and an Israeli strike would be generally unlikely before the fall of 2011, at the earliest. That is speculation, to be sure. The threat is very real. But some progress has been made against Iran this fall, and for this we should thank the Lord and the hard work of U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies.”[71]

I noted that I had just attended a conference on “Confronting the Iran Threat,” organized by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington, D.C.–based think tank. “Most fascinating for me was the opportunity to have a private lunch with one of the more interesting speakers at the event, a gentleman named Uri Lubrani, who at the age of 82 serves as Iran advisor to Israeli vice prime minister Moshe Yaalon,” I reported. “Lubrani previously served as an Iran advisor to the Israeli Ministry of Defense and was Israel’s ambassador to Iran before the Revolution in 1979. He knew the Shah personally. He warned Israeli officials in Jerusalem that a revolution was coming. And he actually flew out of Tehran international airport on February 1, 1979, just hours before Ayatollah Khomeini arrived back in Iran to crowds of millions shouting, ‘The Holy One has come! The Holy One has come!’”

My personal conversation with Lubrani was off the record. But I reported at the time several of the on-the-record comments he made to the conference attendees:

- Assessing the Iranian president’s character: “Ahmadinejad is not . . . a clown. He is a clever, sophisticated son of a b—.”

- Assessing Ahmadinejad’s statements that he is in contact with the Twelfth Imam: “I believe Ahmadinejad really believes what he says. As mayor, he paved a road from the [Jamkaran] mosque to the capital so the Twelfth Imam could travel straight to Tehran.”

- Assessing the “Twelver” End Times theology held by Ayatollah Khamenei: “You have a totally irrational [religious] philosophy that is driving the Ayatollah’s regime in Tehran.”

- Assessing Russia’s growing ambitions in the Middle East and strengthening alliance with Iran: “Russia is aspiring to be important in the world again.”

- Assessing Turkey’s swing away from the West and toward alignment with Russia and Iran: “I detect in their rhetoric that they want to be a Middle East power. . . . They believe the Ottoman Empire should be resurrected.”

- Assessing the Iranian threat: “Iran is on the warpath and has been for some time.”

- Assessing the need for the West to launch preemptive military strikes against Iran in the near term: “I’m against military action [at the moment]. I think it would be counterproductive. . . . The Iranian people are the West’s greatest ally.” Lubrani urged U.S. and Western leaders to do more to support the “Green Movement,” the pro-democracy movement in Iran. He is hopeful there can be an overthrow of the Iranian regime by these pro-democracy forces before the need for military force arises.[72]

One of the panels at the conference was titled “Increasing Threats, Diminishing Options: Should the Military Option Be Employed against Iran?” The speakers were Jeffrey Goldberg, national correspondent for The Atlantic magazine; Reuel Marc Gerecht, former CIA operative; Ken Pollack, former director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, now with the Brookings Institution; and Israeli Major General (reserve) Yaakov Amidror, former head of the IDF’s research and assessment division.

Jeffrey Goldberg noted that while he had written in his September 2010 article that there was a better than 50 percent chance of Israel hitting Iran by summer 2011, he now believed the apparent success of various covert actions—including the Stuxnet virus, which appeared to be the result of a U.S.–Israel partnership—had worked to “elongate the timeline.” He said he believed Israeli officials now felt they had a little breathing room and that all things being equal, the timeline for an Israeli strike against Iran would now be “the end of 2011.” I asked Goldberg to assess whether Netanyahu would order a preemptive military strike against Iran if diplomacy, sanctions, covert actions, and other measures weren’t enough and Israelis were in danger of facing another Holocaust. Goldberg replied, “Netanyahu doesn’t like to make decisions . . . but I think he would feel as if he failed Jewish history if he failed to stop Iran [from getting the Bomb] if nothing else works.”

Reuel Gerecht said he was “skeptical that many of the worst-case scenarios” about a U.S.- or Israeli-led war against Iran “are likely.” He said, “Hezbollah would respond with everything they have” [i.e., missile attacks against Israel] but added, “I’m seriously doubtful that you’d see much of a [negative] reaction throughout the Middle East. . . . Main Iranian reaction would be terrorism [against Israeli and Western interests]. . . . The repercussions are quite sustainable, especially compared to the Iranians having the Bomb.”

Ken Pollack said, “I’m a skeptic on the use of force against Iran . . . because I don’t think the math works out. . . . Will a strike work? I remain very skeptical. . . . I would give more credit to the [Obama] administration for sanctions than I would have expected.” He said the evidence suggested the economic sanctions against Iran were having more impact on Iran’s economy—and creating more division within Iran’s government—than he had anticipated, and he was worried that an Israeli strike against Iran would unify the Iranian government at a time when it was splintering.

The most important comments, it turned out, came from General Yaakov Amidror, as three months later he was appointed by Netanyahu as his national security advisor. I first met Amidror in the summer of 2005, when I interviewed him for my book Epicenter about the threats facing Israel in the years ahead, including the threat from Iran. At this conference, Amidror made it clear he believed the Iran threat had reached a point in which war was both necessary and likely inevitable. “Technically, Israel will be ready [to strike Iran] if and when the decision will be taken,” Amidror said. But “no one is eager for war with Iran. . . . If war with Iran comes, American planes will be used—the question is, will it be American pilots or Israeli pilots flying those planes? . . . It would be a dirty [war], a long one, one no one wants to be in. . . . We want to postpone as long as possible. . . . If you ask me for my assessment—and that’s what I have done for twenty-five years, doing assessments—I believe it is almost impossible to stop Iran without military force.”[73]

The Escalation

At the end of 2010, Israelis were breathing a bit easier. But as 2011 began, revolution erupted in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Syria.

To Israel’s south, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak—a strategic if not warm ally of the U.S. and Israel—was under siege by millions of Egyptians bent on change. President Obama, who had inexplicably refused to help the millions of Iranians demanding an end to the Khamenei/Ahmadinejad regime in the summer of 2009, called for Mubarak to step down. Mubarak was soon toppled, having chosen not to use his military to defend his regime. In the chaotic vacuum created by Mubarak’s sudden downfall, the radical Muslim Brotherhood—not exactly a band of pro-democracy, pro-Western, pro-Israel moderates—began rising to power in Cairo. Soon, Mohamed Morsi, a senior Muslim Brotherhood leader and fierce enemy of Israel, would emerge as the new leader of Egypt after giving a provocative speech at Cairo University declaring, “The Qur’an is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader, jihad is our path, and death in the name of Allah is our goal.”[74]

To Israel’s north, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad found himself under siege by an increasingly well-armed and well-funded movement of rebels. Having seen Mubarak’s plight, al-Assad chose another path. He ordered his military to fight the rebels to the death, a move that would lead to the slaughter of more than twenty thousand Syrians, many at the hands of the al-Assad regime.[75]

Suddenly Netanyahu and his cabinet found Israel’s security environment deteriorating rapidly and dramatically.

On July 23, 2011, another Iranian nuclear scientist was assassinated. “The most recent victim, 35-year-old Darioush Rezaeinejad, was shot in the neck outside his daughter’s Tehran kindergarten on Saturday by two gunmen on a motorcycle,” ABC News reported. “According to an unconfirmed report in an Israeli intelligence publication, Rezaeinejad was working on a nuclear detonator and was seen daily at a nuclear lab in northern Tehran.”[76]

On October 3, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta visited Israel and met with Defense Minister Barak. Panetta made it clear to Barak in no uncertain terms that the Obama administration was strongly opposed to an Israeli first strike against Iran and that Israel should not even consider such a move.[77]

On October 11, however, an Iranian plot to unleash devastating terrorist attacks against U.S., Israeli, and Saudi targets in Washington, D.C. was exposed. “FBI and DEA agents have disrupted a plot to commit a ‘significant terrorist act in the United States’ tied to Iran,” ABC News reported. “The officials said the plot included the assassination of the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States, Adel Al-Jubeir, with a bomb, and subsequent bomb attacks on the Saudi and Israeli embassies in Washington, D.C. Bombings of the Saudi and Israeli embassies in Buenos Aires, Argentina, were also discussed, according to the U.S. officials.”[78]

“One of the two central figures in the alleged plot, Manssor Arbabsiar—described as a 56-year-old naturalized U.S. citizen with Iranian and U.S. passports—was arrested September 29 at JFK Airport in New York,” the Wall Street Journal reported. “At a July 17 planning meeting in Mexico, an undercover U.S. agent suggested to Arbabsiar that the assassination would cause mass casualties.”[79]

“Though it reads like the pages of a Hollywood script, the impact would’ve been very real, and many lives would’ve been lost,” FBI director Robert Mueller said of the foiled plot.[80]

Federal law enforcement and U.S. intelligence deserve credit for uncovering this plot and shutting it down in time. Yet the Obama administration took no decisive action against Iran. Instead, the administration continued pressuring Israel not to consider a preemptive strike against Iran.

Fact or Fiction?

On Sunday, October 16, 2011, I was interviewed on the Fox News Channel about the Iran terror plot. “The Iranian plot FBI Director Mueller has talked about this week also reads like the pages of a soon-to-be-released novel by an author that some are calling a ‘modern-day Nostradamus,’” said Fox host Shannon Bream. “Joel Rosenberg’s new book, The Tehran Initiative, bears an eerie, uncanny resemblance to current events. And it isn’t the first time he has written fiction that’s foreshadowed the future. It’s a special gift I think he has. He joins us now. . . . Of course, this week we’re talking about the foiled Iranian plot. There are some skeptics who wonder just how far up it went in the Iranian leadership. . . . What do you make of it? Were you surprised by it at all, this plan to assassinate the Saudi ambassador here in D.C.?”[81]

I was not surprised. “The problem is that Iran declared war on the United States in 1979, declared war on Israel in 1979 under Ayatollah Khomeini. They started taking hostages. They’ve killed Americans in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan. Now, if this plot turns out to be credible—combined with the nuclear weapons development strategy—you basically have a declared war from an enemy with virtually no response for all these years. I brought in with me an article from April 2010 from the New York Times—then–Defense Secretary Robert ‘Gates Says U.S. Lacks a Policy to Thwart Iran.’ It details a three-page secret memo saying the Obama administration doesn’t have a plan. Well, eighteen months later the problem is, what is that plan to neutralize the Iranian threat, to degrade their capability to threaten us, either with terrorism or nuclear war? The problem is we have a president currently who doesn’t have a plan, and none of the Republican presidential candidates have laid out a serious, credible plan either. And look, I’m writing a fictional novel about . . . a fictional terrorist attack on the United States by Iran . . . and Iran getting nuclear weapons and the U.S. pressuring Israel not to launch a first strike. But we’re not living in a fictional world. We’re living in a world where we neither have a president nor—currently—a Republican presidential campaign structure that has given us a plan.”

“How important do you think it is that the candidates—the GOP candidates—be asked about this at the next debate, what their plan would be and whether or not they would tie Israel’s hands?” Bream asked. “Because there are many candidates within the GOP field who are strong supporters of Israel, but do you think they would allow Israel to act on its own behalf if that nation felt it were necessary for survival?”

“I’d like to see that,” I replied. “And that’s the thing—there’s no question that jobs, the economy, bold tax reform, these are all critical issues, and the candidates—to varying degrees—are addressing them. But in terms of foreign policy and the number one threat to U.S. national security—Iran—nobody has really laid out a comprehensive, detailed plan to neutralize the Iranian threat. We don’t really know if the candidates would launch a preemptive military strike or would seriously consider it as an American president. Nor do we know whether they would support Israel in such a strike either. And yet, in my novel—The Tehran Initiative—I have a fictional American president sending a senior American official to Israel to pressure Israel not to launch a preemptive strike even though they are facing a second Holocaust. Now, just a few weeks ago, President Obama sent Secretary of Defense Panetta to Israel to do that very thing. So, unfortunately, the issues I’m dealing with fictionally are playing out right now. And I think we need to hear from the president and from the Republican candidates—walk us through a plan, because this is a very, very serious issue.”

Sending the Wrong Signals to Iran

On November 12, 2011, a massive explosion occurred at one of Iran’s key missile bases. Iranian officials claimed it was an accident, but speculation was rampant that the explosion was another Mossad covert operation. In light of who was killed, the speculation may have been accurate. “The blast at the Alghadir missile base at Bid Ganeh was so powerful it rattled windows thirty miles away in Tehran,” the U.K. Guardian reported. “Witnesses said it sounded like a huge bomb had been dropped. Seventeen of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards were killed, among them a man described by his peers as the ‘architect’ of the country’s missile programme, Major General Hassan Moghaddam.”[82]

Sixteen days later, on November 28, there was another mysterious but enormous explosion, this time at the Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan, a site known to be used for uranium enrichment.[83]

Two weeks after that, on December 11, there was a massive explosion at a steel factory in the Yazd province. The factory was believed to be producing materials for Iran’s missile or nuclear program or possibly both. Seven workers died in the blast, while twelve others were injured.[84]

That same month, a highly classified U.S. spy drone—filled with state-of-the-art electronic surveillance technology—crashed inside Iran.[85] Iranian officials say they shot it down. The Obama administration asked for the drone to be returned. Tehran laughed in their faces.

Meanwhile, the administration was opposing a new round of tougher sanctions on Iran, publicly pressuring Israel not to strike, and publicly dismissing Israel’s ability to do any serious damage even if they did hit Iran from the air. This was too much even for the reliably pro-Obama editors of the Washington Post. They published an editorial scorching the White House for “waffling” on the Iran issue and sending the “wrong signals to Iran”—signals of weakness and indecision.[86]

“A major ‘hot war’ in the Middle East may be coming in 2012,” I wrote at the end of 2011. “But evidence continues to mount of an aggressive ‘covert war’ already being fought inside Iran and the Middle East. The goal: to neutralize Tehran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs before it’s too late. Mysterious explosions are occurring. Iranian scientists are disappearing. Top-secret U.S. stealth drones are being used—now one has been downed and captured by the Iranians. There is little doubt that the Israeli Mossad is involved in some of these operations. The question is how extensively the CIA and other Western intelligence agencies are involved. In my new political thriller, The Tehran Initiative, the main character—David Shirazi—is a CIA operative sent deep inside Iran to use ‘all means necessary’ to pinpoint, disrupt, and sabotage Iran’s nuclear threat before Israel launches preemptive strikes. We can only hope the CIA is being this aggressive. But the White House and State Department continue to pursue a policy of appeasement toward the wicked regime in Tehran. Now the Obama administration is even trying to water down tougher new Iran sanctions passed by the Senate last week, 100 to 0. Why? Such actions are foolish and reckless and are making the prospect of an Israeli first strike more likely, not less. Keep praying. It may be a long, tough year ahead.”[87]

Chapter Six

The Final Countdown

As 2012 began, Netanyahu’s confidence in the Obama administration was at an all-time low. The White House still had no real plan to stop Iran from getting the Bomb and was more focused on removing U.S. military forces from Iraq and Afghanistan than on preparing for military action against Iran. Israeli covert operations, meanwhile, were proving tactically effective in slowing down the Iranian nuclear program bit by bit. However, these efforts were not proving to be strategic game changers. In other words, Netanyahu and his senior advisors were coming to the conclusion that black ops could buy them time—a few weeks here, maybe a few months there—but alone, they would not be able to stop Iran from building the Bomb.

Worse, the Israelis noticed that Iran was building enormous new uranium enrichment facilities in tunnels deep under large mountains and was preparing to move its entire nuclear program into these facilities. Ehud Barak and his military intelligence specialists now spoke privately to the prime minister about a new danger that Barak called the “zone of immunity”—not the point at which Iran would necessarily have built operational atomic bombs but the point at which Iran’s nuclear program would be immune from an Israeli attack. Together, Barak and his team had developed a detailed, credible, and effective plan of attack. They had convinced Netanyahu that they had enough fighter jets, refueling tankers, missiles, bunker-buster bombs, and other munitions and intelligence to effectively attack Iran’s nuclear program and set it back for at least two to five years. The Americans with all their resources could annihilate the Iranian program but showed little or no interest in doing so. The problem was that as soon as Iran was able to move its program into the hardened underground facilities, Israel’s military capabilities would no longer prove decisive.

Now there was not just one metaphoric clock guiding Netanyahu but two. One was counting down the time until Iran had the Bomb. The second was counting down the time until Israel could no longer unilaterally prevent Iran from building the Bomb. The second clock was moving faster than the first, which meant a full-scale, all-out war was coming up sooner than anyone in the Israeli Cabinet had previously anticipated.

Barak Goes Public

On January 25, 2012, the New York Times Magazine published a cover story by Ronen Bergman that stirred up a firestorm. One of the most respected Israeli journalists following the Iran threat over the past several decades, Bergman was the author of the 2008 book The Secret War with Iran: The 30-Year Clandestine Struggle against the World’s Most Dangerous Terrorist Power. The lengthy and well-sourced article was headlined “Will Israel Attack Iran?”

Bergman concluded the answer was yes.

“After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012,” Bergman wrote. “Perhaps in the small and ever-diminishing window that is left, the United States will choose to intervene after all, but here, from the Israeli perspective, there is not much hope for that. Instead there is that peculiar Israeli mixture of fear—rooted in the sense that Israel is dependent on the tacit support of other nations to survive—and tenacity, the fierce conviction, right or wrong, that only the Israelis can ultimately defend themselves.”[88]

According to Bergman, “Netanyahu and Barak have both repeatedly stressed that a decision has not yet been made and that a deadline for making one has not been set. As we spoke, however, Barak laid out three categories of questions, which he characterized as ‘Israel’s ability to act,’ ‘international legitimacy,’ and ‘necessity,’ all of which require affirmative responses before a decision is made to attack.”

- Ability to act: “Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran’s nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project? And can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?”

- International legitimacy: “Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack?”

- Necessity: “Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran’s nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack?”

“For the first time since the Iranian nuclear threat emerged in the mid-1990s,” Bergman wrote, “at least some of Israel’s most powerful leaders believe that the response to all of these questions is yes.”

Well, almost yes.

Yes, Israel had a solid plan of attack. It had the military capabilities to make the plan work—at least for now. The Obama administration was publicly pressuring Israel not to strike, but Netanyahu and his team knew they had sweeping bipartisan support from Congress, and they concluded it would be politically devastating for Obama to truly oppose an Israeli strike during a reelection campaign. As for exhausting all their other options, that might not yet be true, the Israelis privately concluded, but it was almost true, and it felt true. They had creatively bought themselves more time, but even that was now running out. If they began making genuine final preparations for war, would the Obama administration finally take measures into their own hands and take decisive action to stop Iran? Netanyahu and Barak did not know. But they concluded it might be their last shot. That’s why Barak went public.

The Times cover story was one everyone in the know was reading and seriously contemplating, and it did force the Obama team’s hand, but not in the way Jerusalem had expected.

On February 2, the Washington Post published an article by veteran foreign affairs writer David Ignatius. The article indicated that senior Obama administration officials feared an Israeli strike was imminent. According to Ignatius, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta “believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May, or June—before Iran enters what Israelis described as a ‘zone of immunity’ to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon—and only the United States could then stop them militarily.”[89]

Suddenly, Washington, foreign capitals, and the international media were abuzz with rumors of impending war between Israel and Iran within just a few weeks. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials were speaking with rare candor about the growing possibility of Israeli air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The handwriting had been on the wall for some time, but I had never heard such high-ranking officials speaking on the record in terms of specific time frames for war.[90]

That same day, February 2, Barak delivered a major speech at a security conference in Israel. In it, he publicly acknowledged the fear that Iran was rapidly approaching the “zone of immunity.”

“Today, as opposed to the past, the world has no doubt that the Iranian military nuclear program is steadily approaching maturity and is about to enter the zone of immunity, after which the Iranian regime will be able to complete the program without effective interruption and at a time it finds convenient,” Barak explained. “The dividing line may pass not where the Iranians decide to break out of the non-proliferation treaty and move toward a nuclear device or weapon, but at the place where the dispersal, protection, and survivability efforts will cross a point that would make a physical strike impractical.”[91]

How soon would Iran enter this “zone of immunity”? Ehud Barak did not say. But given Defense Secretary Panetta’s remarks, it seemed plausible that Israel would hit Iran in the spring.

Speaking to reporters and U.S. airmen at Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany on Friday, February 3, Secretary Panetta refused to back away from the Post report, thus effectively confirming the story.[92] The question, of course, was: Why did Panetta publicly describe the window the Israelis were considering for a preemptive strike? Was it to help prepare the American public and the world for the inevitable? Or was Panetta undermining the Israelis by alerting the Iranians to their plans?

The following month, on March 4, President Obama addressed thousands of pro-Israel activists at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). In his speech, the president warned, “There is too much loose talk of war. . . . For the sake of Israel’s security, America’s security, and the peace and security of the world, now is not the time for bluster.” He defended himself against mounting criticism that he was not doing enough to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons or being a strong and faithful enough friend of the Jewish State. He said he would keep the military option on the table and stated emphatically that his administration was not pursuing a policy of “containment” (i.e., letting Iran get the Bomb but then making sure they would not use it). But the president said he believed so much talk of possible war was benefiting Iran, in part by driving up oil prices, which helps fund the regime in Tehran. What’s more, Obama made it crystal clear—yet again—that he did not want Israel to launch a preemptive, unilateral strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.[93]

For someone living in a cave and just stepping out to attend the AIPAC speech or watch it on television, the president’s words might have sounded tough and convincing. The problem was, it did not sound that way to Netanyahu, Barak, or their inner circle. Though the Israelis continued to speak respectfully of the president in public, in private they felt the Obama administration had been dragging its heels for years and still refused to get serious about stopping Iran.

This was not just perception. The Israelis could point to a troubling set of facts.

- In 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton vowed the U.S. would impose “crippling” economic sanctions on Iran if nuclear negotiations failed.[94]

- In 2010, however, the administration reversed course and said the U.S. would not impose “crippling” sanctions on Iran, even though talks were yielding no positive results but rather giving Iran more time to defy the international community and move toward the Bomb.[95]

- In late 2011, the Obama administration resisted stringent sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank and then worked to water down a new sanctions bill in Congress.[96]

- In December 2011, the Senate passed a bill 100-0 imposing tough new sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank in an attempt to cripple Iranian oil sales and force the regime to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program. Incredibly, the Obama administration initially opposed the bill.[97]

- In the end, the Obama White House finally relented and supported the sanctions on Iran’s Central Bank, but only after France and Britain led the way.[98]

Netanyahu Goes Public

On the morning of Monday, March 5, 2012, President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu met privately in the Oval Office for over an hour, followed by a private lunch with top advisors in the State Dining Room. In a gesture aimed at warming the strained relationship between the two leaders, Netanyahu gave the president a decorated scroll containing the biblical book of Esther. He also discussed with Mr. Obama the significance of the story, explaining that some twenty-five hundred years ago, a Persian tyrant had threatened to annihilate the Jewish people. In response, Queen Esther, at the urging of her Jewish cousin, prayed and fasted for the salvation of the Jews and then pleaded with King Ahasuerus for the protection of her people.

“Then, too, they wanted to wipe us out,” Netanyahu told Obama.[99]

For Netanyahu, who has never been a religious person, it was an unexpected gift at an unexpected time. It was also a gift with a critically important meaning, one that Netanyahu reinforced in his private meeting with the president. He thanked Mr. Obama for stating in his AIPAC speech that Israel has “the sovereign right to make its own decisions.” Israeli officials privately interpreted the president’s comments to mean the U.S. would not interfere in an Israeli strike if there was no other option left. Then, sitting next to the president, the prime minister personally reiterated that Israel must have the ability to defend itself against an existential threat. “My supreme responsibility as prime minister of Israel is to ensure that Israel remains the master of its fate,” he said.[100]

What is not clear is whether the prime minister explained the ending of the biblical story. Yes, Esther did her part, praying, fasting, and intervening before the Persian king on behalf of the Jewish people. And yes, the God of Israel heard those prayers and answered powerfully. He softened the Persian king’s heart, caused the evil official known as Haman to be executed, and miraculously changed the dynamic in favor of the Jews. Still, it must be remembered that in the end the Jewish people did have to fight against the Persian forces who were hell-bent on their destruction. With the Lord’s help, the Jews miraculously prevailed.

“The king granted the Jews who were in each and every city the right to assemble and to defend their lives, to destroy, to kill and to annihilate the entire army of any people or province which might attack them,” the Bible tells us. “The Jews assembled in their cities throughout all the provinces of King Ahasuerus to lay hands on those who sought their harm; and no one could stand before them, for the dread of them had fallen on all the peoples” (Esther 8:11; 9:2).

That night, Netanyahu himself addressed the AIPAC conference. He made it clear to Israel’s Jewish and Christian supporters—including hundreds of congressmen, senators, and foreign ambassadors—that the time to act decisively was running out. “For fifteen years, I’ve been warning that a nuclear-armed Iran is a grave danger to my country and to the peace and security of the entire world,” the prime minister told the thousands of supporters of Israel gathered in the Washington, D.C. convention center.[101] “For the last decade, the international community has tried diplomacy. It hasn’t worked. For six years, the international community has applied sanctions. That hasn’t worked either. I appreciate President Obama’s recent efforts to impose even tougher sanctions against Iran. These sanctions are hurting Iran’s economy, but unfortunately, Iran’s nuclear program continues to march forward. Israel has waited patiently for the international community to resolve this issue. We’ve waited for diplomacy to work. We’ve waited for sanctions to work. None of us can afford to wait much longer. As prime minister of Israel, I will never let my people live in the shadow of annihilation. . . .

“Some commentators would have you believe that stopping Iran from getting the bomb is more dangerous than letting Iran have the bomb,” Netanyahu continued. “They say that a military confrontation with Iran would undermine the efforts already under way, that it would be ineffective, and that it would provoke an even more vindictive response by Iran. I’ve heard these arguments before. In fact, I’ve read them before. In my desk, I have copies of an exchange of letters between the World Jewish Congress and the United States War Department. . . . The World Jewish Congress implored the American government to bomb Auschwitz. The reply came five days later. I want to read it to you. ‘Such an operation could be executed only by diverting considerable air support essential to the success of our forces elsewhere . . . and in any case, it would be of such doubtful efficacy that it would not warrant the use of our resources. . . .’ And, my friends, here’s the most remarkable sentence of all, and I quote: ‘Such an effort might provoke even more vindictive action by the Germans.’

“Think about that—‘even more vindictive action’—than the Holocaust. My friends, 2012 is not 1944. The American government today is different. You heard it in President Obama’s speech yesterday. But here’s my point: the Jewish people are also different. Today we have a state of our own. And the purpose of the Jewish State is to defend Jewish lives and to secure the Jewish future. Never again will we not be masters of the fate of our very survival. Never again. That is why Israel must always have the ability to defend itself, by itself, against any threat.”

Then Netanyahu shared with the audience the story he had shared with the president: the biblical story of Jewish Queen Esther. “This week, we will read how one woman changed Jewish history,” he explained. “In synagogues throughout the world, the Jewish people will celebrate the Festival of Purim. We will read how some twenty-five hundred years ago, a Persian anti-Semite tried to annihilate the Jewish people. And we will read how that plot was foiled by one courageous woman—Esther. In every generation, there are those who wish to destroy the Jewish people. In this generation, we are blessed to live in an age when there is a Jewish State capable of defending the Jewish people. And we are doubly blessed to have so many friends like you, Jews and non-Jews alike, who love the State of Israel and support its right to defend itself. So as I leave you tonight, I thank you for your friendship. Thank you for your courage. Thank you for standing up for the one and only Jewish State.”

At the time, I wrote on my blog, “All the signs to me look like Israel is going to war with Iran, and soon. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu strikes me as a man who has made his peace with the task ahead of him, a man who now believes his nation is capable of winning a war with Iran and has made all of the preparations necessary to strike if need be. I’m not saying he’s made a final decision. But he’s talking like a leader ready to make that final decision in the not-too-distant future. Indeed, I believe this trip to Washington is part of Netanyahu’s process of making a final assessment of whether the Obama administration will truly have Israel’s back, as the president promises, or whether Israel will be completely isolated. And while the White House is clearly pressuring Israel not to strike, Congress seems ready to support Israel fully.”[102]

Final Preparations?

With millions of people around the world praying for peace, myself included, I was relieved when war did not break out that spring. But even as we prayed for peace, it seemed Israel was making final preparations for war. As spring turned to summer, Israeli officials accelerated the distribution of gas masks to its citizens. They tested an emergency SMS text-messaging system to alert people of incoming missiles. They also ran some of the largest and most dramatic military exercises and civil defense drills in the history of the country, all seemingly in an effort to prepare people for war.

Then, on August 1, an article in the New York Times sent a jolt of electricity through the foreign policy community in Washington, Europe, and the Middle East. In a story focusing mostly on the Obama administration’s efforts to persuade Netanyahu not to launch a preemptive strike, the Times quoted Efraim Halevy, the former chief of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, as saying, “If I were an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next twelve weeks.”[103]

Halevy was not known for being an advocate for a strike, certainly not one so soon. But his instincts and experience suggested the war would start before the American elections on November 6. That single line caught the attention of many world leaders and intelligence analysts and caused them to wonder if war was coming sooner than they had expected.

A week later, on August 11, an Israeli newspaper published a story based on a two-and-a-half-hour discussion with an unnamed but very high-ranking Israeli leader (widely believed in Israel and in Washington to be Ehud Barak) who suggested the zero hour for an Israeli attack was fast approaching. “If Israel forgoes the chance to act and it becomes clear that it no longer has the power to act, the likelihood of an American action will decrease,” the high-ranking Israeli official said. “So we cannot wait a year to find out who was right: the one who said that the likelihood of an American action is high or the one who said the likelihood of an American action is low.”[104] Here, apparently, was Israel’s defense minister making a vigorous case for Israeli preemptive action—and for taking such action in less than one year. Again, the clock seemed to be speeding up.

The following day, Israeli deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon said it was time for the international community to admit the nuclear talks with Iran had failed. After all, three fresh rounds of direct negotiations with Iran by the “P5+1 Group”[105] in Istanbul, Baghdad, and Moscow had yielded absolutely no progress toward persuading Iran to stop illegally enriching uranium. “Asked how long the Iranians should be given to cease all nuclear activity,” reported the New York Times, “Mr. Ayalon said ‘weeks, and not more than that.’”[106] Once again, a high-ranking Israeli official was indicating that the time frame for action was narrowing dramatically.

Then came the latest International Atomic Energy Agency report, a sobering document that was released on August 30, 2012. The report revealed that Iran had doubled its uranium enrichment capacity at its most secure, hardened underground nuclear facility at Fordow, near the religious city of Qom—this in spite of all the economic sanctions that had been imposed upon Iran, including strong new sanctions by Europe imposed on July 1. What’s more, the report indicated that Iran had enriched enough uranium to between 5 percent purity and 20 percent purity that could be quickly further enriched to 90 percent weapons-grade purity to produce between seven and ten nuclear warheads. The IAEA report also noted ominously, “The Agency has become increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear-related activities involving military-related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.”[107]

The IAEA report—most certainly given to Israeli officials before its public release and based on intelligence that was, in part, developed by American and Israeli agencies—provided fresh details validating fears held by Netanyahu, Barak, and their closest advisors. International diplomatic negotiations with Iran were clearly going nowhere. Strong new international sanctions were showing real signs of worsening Iran’s economy. But the sanctions were having no impact. Iran’s leaders were not being dissuaded from pursuing the Bomb. New evidence revealed that Iran was accelerating its efforts to build warheads and to learn how to attach those warheads to ballistic missiles. And most concerning of all, Netanyahu and his team could see that Iran was about to hide and protect its nuclear program in hardened underground facilities like the one at Fordow—facilities that Israeli fighter jets, conventional bombs, and conventional missiles would not be able to easily neutralize.

Just days later, on September 4, Netanyahu met for ten hours in Jerusalem with his fourteen-member Security Cabinet, including the defense minister, the foreign minister, and other top military and intelligence officials. They were briefed on the latest highly classified intelligence on Iran. They discussed how close Iran was to hiding its nuclear program so far underground it would be unreachable by Israeli military means. And they discussed timelines for taking action. One participant told a reporter later, “We heard detailed, disturbing, and very troubling information regarding the progress of Iran’s nuclear program.” The media reported that no vote was taken by the Security Cabinet on operational decisions, but that could be disinformation to confuse Iran.[108]

In this context, a story published by the Israeli daily newspaper Israel Hayom on September 7 made big news: “Former Likud and Kadima member Tzachi Hanegbi said this week that he believed the fate of Israel’s conflict with Iran will be decided within the next fifty days.” The story, which immediately went viral and was discussed in Washington and in capitals around the world, quoted Hanegbi as saying, “We are entering the most fateful fifty days Israel has faced since, perhaps, the similarly fateful days prior to the Yom Kippur War.”[109] The reference to the Yom Kippur War of 1973 was significant. At that time, Israeli intelligence failed disastrously, then–Prime Minister Golda Meir did not order a preemptive strike, Israel’s enemies instead struck first, and Israelis deeply feared they were about to lose their country.

The same day as the Hanegbi quote was released, Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper—arguably the most pro-Israel leader on the planet today—ordered the Canadian embassy in Tehran closed and all Canadian diplomats to leave Iran immediately. He also ordered the Iranian embassy in Ottawa closed and gave Iranian diplomats and staff five days to leave the country. It was a move quickly applauded by Netanyahu and an ominous signal that Israel’s closest friends were preparing for war.[110]

The Train Wreck

With tensions rising rapidly, a disaster suddenly occurred in U.S.–Israel relations. The media in Israel and the U.S. began reporting that despite a possible major war in the Middle East so close at hand, President Obama had turned down not one but two possibilities for a personal meeting with Netanyahu when the Israeli premier was scheduled to arrive in the U.S. for the opening of the U.N. General Assembly’s fall session.

Netanyahu’s aides asked the White House for a meeting in Manhattan but were told the president would be too busy. The aides then suggested Netanyahu would be willing to go to Washington to meet the president, but again Mr. Obama’s aides said the president simply did not have time on his schedule for Netanyahu.

Time, however, was not the issue. The president appeared on the Late Show with David Letterman and on The View with Whoopi Goldberg and company during this period. The real issue was one of priority. President Obama chose to send a very public message to Israel—and to Iran—that he did not consider talks with Netanyahu important, even on the eve of war.

The president’s decision came the same week that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the U.S. refused to set “red lines” or deadlines for Iran to stop its illegal nuclear activity before the U.S. would consider diplomacy and sanctions worthless and take military action. In some of his strongest comments to date—comments that struck me as suggesting the Israeli leader was so fed up with the White House’s inaction that he was ready to go it alone against Iran—Netanyahu told reporters that because the international community was refusing to set “red lines,” the world had “no moral right” to tell the Israeli government it cannot take military action to defend its people.

“The world tells Israel: ‘Wait. There’s still time,’” Netanyahu said. “And I say, ‘Wait for what? Wait until when?’ Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel.”[111]

On September 16, a twenty-five-nation naval armada—including three American carrier battle groups—headed to the Persian Gulf, anticipating the possible breakout of an Israel-Iran war and the need to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to oil shipping.

Three days later, the IDF launched massive, surprise live-fire military exercises on the Golan Heights amid growing concerns regarding the implosion of the Syrian government and the risk of Syrian chemical and biological weapons falling into the hands of Israel’s enemies.[112]

The next day, Iran’s top nuclear official publicly admitted that his nation had repeatedly and purposefully lied to the IAEA about the progress of its nuclear program, confirming what many critics of Iran already suspected and raising new questions about just how much more advanced Iran’s nuclear program was than the world knew.[113]

Then Ahmadinejad came to New York and gave his stunningly clear speech to the U.N. General Assembly, indicating that the American and Israeli governments would not last long and the Twelfth Imam would soon come to rule the world.

Netanyahu then told the gathered leaders of the world that Iran was 70 percent of the way to having the Bomb and would be 90 percent of the way there by spring or summer of 2013. He warned the world to take decisive action to stop Iran soon and clearly implied Israel would take action if the world did not.

That very same month, the world began to learn of a curious new development at Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment plant, the one being built in tunnels deep under a mountain near the religious city of Qom. First we learned through Iranian officials that an explosion occurred near the Fordow plant in mid-August. The explosion was so severe that it destroyed the power lines that fed the plant with electricity from a power station in Qom, apparently shutting down the plant that the Israelis most feared could move Iran into the “zone of immunity.”

Then we slowly began to learn more details from Western intelligence officials about how the explosion occurred. “A monitoring device disguised as a rock exploded last month when Iranian troops near Fordow nuclear plant disturbed it,” the Sunday Times of London and the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported. “According to the report, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard were on patrol last month to check terminals connecting data and telephone links at the underground nuclear enrichment plant, when they saw the rock and tried to move it. ‘Iranian experts who examined the scene of the explosion found the remains of a device capable of intercepting data from computers at the plant, where uranium is being enriched in centrifuges,’ said the report.”[114]

A secret rock that was spying on Iran, intercepting sensitive phone calls, e-mails, and other important communications? A rock that when moved blew up and not only destroyed evidence of who might have put the device there but also severed the power lines into the Iranian nuclear facility? The war in the shadows was getting more interesting by the day, regardless of whether it was the Israelis or the Americans who were behind this latest intriguing twist.

The larger question was whether the explosion at Fordow had done significant enough damage to Iran’s uranium enrichment process that it bought Israel more time. Had it relieved Netanyahu of the need to order a strike before the American presidential and congressional elections?

Other questions were arising as well. What would the effects be if Netanyahu dissolved the government and called for early elections? How would a suddenly electrified political environment put new strains on Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet? How would the relationship between Netanyahu and Ehud Barak be affected?

All this remains to be seen, but we will know soon enough. If the last few years—indeed, if the last few months—are any guide, there will be more intriguing twists and turns on the road to war. But by the fall of 2012, evidence was mounting that the final countdown to war seemed to be under way.

Chapter Seven

What Does the Future Hold?

In January 2010, my wife, Lynn, and I were in Edmonton, Canada. As I prepared to speak at a Christian conference on the biblical prophecies of Ezekiel 36–39 about the future of Israel and her neighbors, I awoke to news coverage of a major Netanyahu address in Poland, commemorating the sixty-fifth anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. I was both stunned and encouraged.

Speaking on the actual site of the Nazi death camp, the prime minister warned the world of new genocidal threats against the Jewish people and the importance of acting early enough to prevent such threats from coming to pass. He also declared to the people of Europe and the world that the prophecies of Ezekiel 37 have been fulfilled. It was an extraordinary moment. Rarely has any world leader given an address on an international stage declaring End Times prophecies from the Bible have come true. Rarer still is an Israeli leader making such a pronouncement; most Israeli prime ministers tend to be quite secular, reflecting of the majority of Israeli people, who are rather secular as well. Yet that is exactly what Netanyahu did.

“The most important lesson of the Holocaust is that a murderous evil must be stopped early, when it is still in its infancy and before it can carry out its designs,” Netanyahu told the visiting dignitaries. “The enlightened nations of the world must learn this lesson. We, the Jewish nation, who lost a third of our people on Europe’s blood-soaked soil, have learned that the only guarantee for defending our people is a strong State of Israel and the army of Israel. We have learned to warn the nations of the world of impending danger but at the same time to prepare to defend ourselves. As the head of the Jewish State, I pledge to you today: we will never again permit evil to snuff out the life of our people and the life of our own country.”[115]

After the Holocaust, Netanyahu continued, “the Jewish people rose from ashes and destruction, from a terrible pain that can never be healed. Armed with the Jewish spirit, the justice of man, and the vision of the prophets, we sprouted new branches and grew deep roots. Dry bones became covered with flesh, a spirit filled them, and they lived and stood on their own feet. As Ezekiel prophesied: ‘Then He said unto me: These bones are the whole House of Israel. They say, “Our bones are dried up, our hope is gone; we are doomed.” Prophesy, therefore, and say to them: Thus said the Lord God: I am going to open your graves and lift you out of your graves, O My people, and bring you to the land of Israel.’ I stand here today on the ground where so many of my people perished—and I am not alone. The State of Israel and all the Jewish people stand with me. We bow our heads to honor your memory and lift our heads as we raise our flag—a flag of blue and white with a Star of David in its center. And everyone sees. And everyone hears. And everyone knows that our hope is not lost.”

It was a powerful moment—an Israeli leader telling the world that ancient biblical prophecies were coming true before their very eyes. I was intrigued. Netanyahu’s speech begged the question: If the prophecies of Ezekiel 37 have come true in our time, what other prophecies about the future of Israel and the people of the epicenter might come true in our lifetime as well?

“I Read from the Bible with My Younger Boy”

Two months later, this headline in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz caught my eye: “Netanyahu’s Son Avner Wins National Bible Quiz.” The article noted that Avner Netanyahu defeated twelve finalists—out of twelve thousand students who originally entered the competition—to win Israel’s National Bible Quiz.

“I don’t remember feeling this much tension since the [Likud] primaries,” the prime minister quipped as he beamed with pride at his son’s accomplishment.[116]

I had no idea that Avner was such a student of the Bible. Until then, few people outside the Netanyahu family knew.[117] And the article went on to share other fascinating pieces of the story I didn’t know.

“Avner Netanyahu’s first-place finish had his family swelling with pride,” Haaretz reported. “His win comes with an impressive family pedigree—three of Sara Netanyahu’s siblings won both the National Bible Quiz and the International Bible Quiz. ‘Until now, I’ve always said that I’m a member of a family with Bible quiz champions,’ said Sara Netanyahu. ‘But now I have a son who is a champion.’ The premier and his wife repeatedly embraced their son, who said he would have enjoyed the contest even if he had finished in last place.”[118]

In April 2010, Avner went on to compete in the World Bible Quiz competition, held at the Jerusalem Center for the Performing Arts. In this he placed third, but his parents were just as thrilled, as was the rest of his extended family. In fact, Avner’s maternal uncle Hagai Ben-Artzi (one of Sara’s brothers) noted that it was his father, Shmuel Ben-Artzi, who had made Bible study such an important part of their family’s life.

“I’m saluting my father here; it’s all thanks to him,” Ben-Artzi told the Jerusalem Post. “They [Avner and his grandfather Shmuel] meet every day to study the Bible.”[119]

The prime minister handed out the prizes to each of the top three finishers, including his son. “David Ben Gurion said that the foundation of our existence here is the Bible,” Netanyahu said. “I was brought up studying the Bible; so were my brothers. The Bible has once again become the Book of books for all of Israel. . . . The Bible is the basis for the existence of the people of Israel and the State of Israel.”

A few months later, in July 2010, a friend e-mailed me to ask if I had seen Netanyahu interviewed on Larry King Live on CNN the night before. I had not, but at his prompting, I found the intriguing interview online.

“You’re prime minister of Israel,” Larry King noted. “A previous prime minister was assassinated. You live in the center of a hostile world. Are you ever able to really relax?”

“Yeah—you know, yes,” Netanyahu replied. “And I’ll tell you when. Every Saturday, our Sabbath, we have a day off. It’s a very good idea that this institution was brought into the world. So I have a day off. And every Saturday, I take an hour and a half, and I read from the Bible with my younger boy. He has just won the National Bible Championship in Israel, and he came third in the international. It’s like the big spelling bee, you know, huge. I relax then. I draw a lot of spiritual strength. You know, I used to teach him. He is now fifteen. But in the last couple of years, he teaches me. So, yes, I draw enormous reservoirs of strength, and I think that is needed for all leaders, but especially for the leaders of Israel.”[120]

A Bible Study at the Prime Minister’s House

In the fall of 2011, sadness struck the Netanyahu home. Sara’s father, Shmuel Ben-Artzi, passed away. In December of that year, the prime minister honored his father-in-law in a very special way.

“Taking a page out of David Ben-Gurion and Menachem Begin’s playbook, Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu will begin hosting a regular Bible study group in his official residence for researchers, public officials, and invited guests,” the Jerusalem Post reported. “Netanyahu announced the establishment of the study circle on Friday at a ceremony marking thirty days since the passing of his father-in-law, Shmuel Ben-Artzi. The study group will be named after Ben-Artzi, a noted poet and Bible teacher. Both Ben-Gurion and Begin, when they each served as prime minister, hosted regular Bible study groups. Netanyahu said he was establishing the class to perpetuate love of the Bible.”[121]

I wrote about this development at the time and noted that “these are excellent steps by the prime minister, and he should be commended for them. Indeed, let us pray that the study of the Word of God has a powerful, personal impact on the prime minister and his family and each of his colleagues and guests. Let’s pray that many Israelis would follow the prime minister’s lead and begin reading the Holy Scriptures again and that Bible studies in people’s homes would spring up all over the land of Israel. Let’s pray that more and more Israelis would develop a new and deeper curiosity about Bible prophecy, both the dramatic prophecies in the Scriptures that have already been fulfilled and those that will come to pass soon, including the all-important prophecies about the Messiah.”[122]

Such a national reawakening to the importance of the Scriptures has happened before in Israel’s history. Men of old like Nehemiah, Ezra, Josiah, and Joel were beloved Israeli governors, priests, kings, and prophets whom the Lord used to turn the Jewish people back to the Scriptures and the need for national and individual prayer, fasting, and repentance.

One of my favorite examples is found in 2 Kings 22—the remarkable story of King Josiah. I’d encourage you to read it. At the age of eight, Josiah took the throne. A few years later, he instructed that the Temple be cleaned and renovated. In so doing, he learned that a long-forgotten copy of the Scriptures had been found in the Temple. Indeed, someone brought him the dusty scrolls and read the Word of God to the king. “When the king heard the words of the book of the law, he tore his clothes” (v. 11) in repentance for all of Israel’s sinful ways, as well as his own. Then King Josiah commanded Hilkiah the priest and several other servants, “Go, inquire of the LORD for me and the people and all Judah concerning the words of this book that has been found, for great is the wrath of the LORD that burns against us, because our fathers have not listened to the words of this book, to do according to all that is written concerning us” (v. 13).

In 2 Kings 23, then, comes the equally amazing story of King Josiah gathering all the people of Israel and reading the Word of the Lord to them. Then the king proceeded to make major national reforms in accordance with the Scriptures. “Before him,” the Bible says in verse 25, “there was no king like him who turned to the LORD with all his heart and with all his soul and with all his might, according to all the law of Moses; nor did any like him arise after him.” May Israel once again experience a national renaissance of hunger for the Word of the Lord.[123]

“The Bible Is . . . a Map and Compass”

War planning and preparations dominated Netanyahu’s schedule for the next few months. Then sadness struck the Netanyahu family again.

Benzion Netanyahu, the prime minister’s father, passed away on Monday, April 30, 2012, at the remarkable age of 102. The loss of the highly respected historian, author, and Zionist was felt deeply by Bibi, his younger brother, Iddo, and the rest of his family. But it did not dissuade the prime minister from moving forward with the Bible study in honor of his father-in-law.

On Wednesday, May 23, Netanyahu, Sara, their sons, close friends, and numerous Jewish scholars kicked off their first home Bible study. It was scheduled to last for an hour but went on for two, and it focused on the book of Ruth.

“On Wednesday afternoon in Baghdad, a few thousand kilometers away from the prime minister’s Jerusalem residence, the world powers known as the P5+1—the U.S., China, Russia, France, Britain, and Germany—sat down for much-anticipated talks with the Iranians about their nuclear program,” reported the Jerusalem Post.[124] “And all the while, for two hours on a mild afternoon, Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu—with a small black kippa on his head—sat in the covered courtyard of his home with sixteen rabbis, academics, Bible scholars, archeologists, and linguists and discussed the meaning of the book of Ruth, which will be read on Shavuot on Sunday in synagogues around the world. His wife, Sara, sat next to him, and his two sons sat on a bank of chairs set to the side.

“There was something at once heartening and slightly humorous about Netanyahu setting aside precious time in the late afternoon to talk about biblical figures . . . while Iran loomed so large and domestic issues beckoned so seriously,” the Post continued. “It was heartening in that it is uniquely elevating seeing the prime minister of the Jewish state taking time out to study the Bible, the heart of Jewish existence. One cannot talk about Jewish historic rights to this place, which the prime minister does constantly, without appreciating and understanding the Bible. . . . [The rabbi] wanted to read only a few verses from the book of Ruth, but the prime minister urged him on to read more. This is better than the usual matters he has to deal with, Netanyahu quipped.”

As the study began, Netanyahu said, “Ben-Gurion and Begin believed that the Bible should be the heritage of the entire nation—secular and religious, young and old, men and women. The Bible is the foundation of our existence. It unites the Jewish people, as it has throughout the generations. It also serves not only as a foundation but also as a map and compass. . . . The Bible is always relevant vis-à-vis today’s problems and challenges. It inspires; it is a source of life for our people, and I think that it is important to expand Bible study and love of the Bible among all parts of the nation. This is also the goal of this circle.”[125]

Where Is Israel Heading?

The prime minister was right. The Bible is our map and compass as we move into the future. Now, more than ever, Israelis—and all of us—need to be turning to the Bible as darkness descends around us and the way forward becomes more difficult to navigate.

As King David famously wrote, “Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path” (Psalm 119:105, KJV). David asked the Lord to “open my eyes, that I may behold wonderful things from Your law” (Psalm 119:18).

What’s more, King David knew that studying and internalizing and obeying God’s Word was Israel’s only hope against her enemies. “O how I love Your law!” he wrote. “It is my meditation all the day. Your commandments make me wiser than my enemies. . . . I have more insight than all my teachers, for Your testimonies are my meditation. . . . How sweet are Your words to my taste! Yes, sweeter than honey to my mouth!” (Psalm 119:97-99, 103).

In this context, I have been repeatedly asked in recent months how the current crisis with Iran might set the stage for Bible prophecies to come to pass in the years ahead. Let me share some thoughts on this important question.

There is no Bible prophecy that clearly and definitively speaks of an Israeli first strike on Iran. However, there are two significant passages of Scripture that deal with Iran being defeated in major Mideast clashes in the “last days” of history.

The first important passage about the future of Iran is found in Jeremiah 49:34-39. This is known as the “Prophecy concerning Elam.” Elam was an ancient name for the region we now call Iran.

Thus says the LORD of hosts, “Behold, I am going to break the bow of Elam, the finest of their might. I will bring upon Elam the four winds from the four ends of heaven, and will scatter them to all these winds; and there will be no nation to which the outcasts of Elam will not go. So I will shatter Elam before their enemies and before those who seek their lives; and I will bring calamity upon them, even My fierce anger,” declares the LORD, “And I will send out the sword after them until I have consumed them. Then I will set My throne in Elam and destroy out of it king and princes,” declares the LORD. “But it will come about in the last days that I will restore the fortunes of Elam,” declares the LORD.

Allow me to draw out several key points from this passage:

- Verse 39 tells us that these events are going to happen in “the last days.”

- The passage tells us that God will scatter the people of Iran all over the earth (verse 36). This actually happened during the Iranian Revolution in 1979. For the first time in history, Iranians were scattered all over the globe. Today, an estimated five million Iranians live outside their home country.

- God says he is going to “break” the current structure of Iran (verse 35).

- God says he will “shatter Elam [Iran] before their enemies” (verse 37).

- God says he will bring his “fierce anger” against the leaders of Iran (verse 37).

- God says, “I will send out the sword after them until I have consumed them” (verse 37).

- God says he will “destroy” Iran’s “king and princes” (verse 38).

- Despite all this terrible judgment, God specifically promises to “set My throne in Elam”—that is, be the God and King of the people of Iran (verse 38).

- God also promises to “restore the fortunes of Elam” (verse 39).

The Bible thus clearly indicates that God is going to bring judgment upon Iran’s leaders and military in the End Times, but it’s also clear that he is going to bless and liberate the people of Iran in a very dramatic way. One view of the promise in verse 39 to “restore the fortunes” of Iran is that after judging Iran’s leaders and military, God will allow the people of Iran to become politically peaceful and economically prosperous. That may be the case. I, however, lean more toward the view held by many Iranian Christians who believe that God means he will bless the people of Iran spiritually.

In some ways, this has already begun. In 1979, there were only about five hundred known Shia Muslim converts to Christianity in all of Iran. Today, all the Iranian Christian leaders I have interviewed (more than forty) say there are more than one million Shia converts to Christianity in Iran. Iranian followers of Jesus Christ believe that as we get closer to the second coming of Christ, God is going to pour out his love and forgiveness and his Holy Spirit on the people of Iran in an even more dramatic way, opening the eyes and hearts of even more Muslims and helping them to see clearly that Jesus Christ is the only Savior of the world and that only through faith in him can they know and experience God’s love and plan for their lives. They also believe that Iran will soon become a “sending country,” a base camp, as it were, from which thousands—perhaps tens of thousands—of Iranian followers of Christ will fan out throughout the epicenter, preaching the gospel, making disciples, and planting churches in the last days.[126]

Could these prophecies be set into motion by an Israeli first strike against Iran such as the one being currently contemplated by Netanyahu? Theoretically, yes, they could. In verse 37, God says, “I will send out the sword after them [the leaders of Iran] until I have consumed them.” Could God use Israel to “send out the sword”? Yes, he could. But we must also consider other possibilities. For one, God could use countries other than Israel to bring judgment on Iran’s leaders. For another, God could supernaturally bring judgment upon Iran’s leaders without involving the Israeli military or the militaries of other countries at all.

Indeed, it is possible that the prophecies of Jeremiah 49 will be fulfilled during the prophetic “War of Gog and Magog.”

The War of Gog and Magog

The second major set of prophecies about the future of Iran is found in Ezekiel chapters 38 and 39. These are prophecies describing a coming event that many Bible scholars call the “War of Gog and Magog.” I wrote about these prophecies in detail in my 2006 book, Epicenter: Why the Current Rumblings in the Middle East Will Change Your Future. I have also spoken often about these prophecies at churches and conferences and have posted my sermon notes on my blog.

Here’s the short version:

- A dictator (Gog) will emerge in Russia (Magog) in the “last days” of history (Ezekiel 38:16).

- This Russian dictator will build a military alliance with many nations. The first such nation mentioned in the biblical list is “Persia,” the nation we now know as Iran (Ezekiel 38:5).

- Other countries that will join the Russian-Iranian alliance against Israel will be Libya (referred to in the text as “Put”), Sudan and Ethiopia (“Cush”), Turkey (“Gomer”), and a group of other Middle Eastern countries (Ezekiel 38:5-6).

- Together, this Russian-Iranian coalition will seek to attack, destroy, and take over Israel after Israel has been prophetically reborn as a nation, the Jews have begun to return to the Holy Land after centuries of exile, and the Jews—with God’s help—have started to rebuild the ancient ruins and make the deserts bloom (see Ezekiel 36 and 37).

- The Russian forces (and possibly others) will attack Israel from the north, suggesting they will come through Lebanon and Syria, though neither country is mentioned in the text (Ezekiel 38:15, 39:2).

- Egypt is not mentioned as part of the coalition against Israel.

- Iraq is not mentioned as part of the coalition against Israel either.

- Before the attack can happen, Israel must be “living securely” in the land (Ezekiel 38:8, 11).

- Before the attack, Israel must experience a significant degree of financial prosperity that will seem to other nations to be one of the reasons for the coalition to attack Israel (Ezekiel 38:12-13).

- The text indicates that not a single nation will come to Israel’s defense when this Russian-Iranian coalition surrounds them and prepares to attack.

- We would have to conclude then that either the U.S. has imploded and is no longer able to defend Israel or that its leaders have made a political decision to ignore, abandon, or side against Israel.

- Just when all hope appears to be lost and Israel looks like it will be destroyed, the text indicates that the God of Israel will supernaturally intervene to judge these enemies of Israel. A massive earthquake will occur that will shatter the enemy forces. Terrible diseases will be unleashed among the enemy forces. The enemies will turn on one another and attack one another. Fire will rain down from heaven on Israel’s enemies, consuming them (Ezekiel 38:18-23).

- The text also indicates that fire will fall from heaven on some of the enemies’ home countries, suggesting their governments and military may be nearly or completely destroyed or shattered during this event (Ezekiel 39:1-6).

- The Bible indicates that God will not only physically save his people—Israel—but will spiritually save them as well. “Therefore thus says the Lord GOD, ‘Now I will restore the fortunes of Jacob and have mercy on the whole house of Israel; and I will be jealous for My holy name. . . . I will not hide My face from them any longer, for I will have poured out My Spirit on the house of Israel’” (Ezekiel 39:25, 29).

Could these prophecies be set into motion by an Israeli first strike against Iran such as the one currently being contemplated by Netanyahu? No, not immediately—at least not under current circumstances.

First, in Ezekiel 38–39, Iran is not the lead aggressor; Russia is. Currently, we see a Russian-Iranian political and military alliance emerging for the first time since Ezekiel wrote the prophecy more than twenty-five hundred years ago, and Vladimir Putin is emerging as a dictator in Russia. But as of this writing, neither Putin nor any other leader from Russia is taking the lead in mobilizing a military force against the Jewish State.

Second, in Ezekiel 38–39, Iran is part of a broad coalition of nations that takes the military offensive against Israel. That’s not the case in the current environment. Iran’s only allies in this present showdown with Israel are the Hezbollah terrorist forces in Lebanon, the Hamas terrorist forces in Gaza, and the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad (which is currently imploding).

Third, in Ezekiel 38–39, there is no indication that Israel launches a preemptive strike against Iran or against any of the coalition members. Indeed, there is no indication that Israel uses its military at all in the War of Gog and Magog. To the contrary, the God of Israel supernaturally intervenes to save Israel and defeat her enemies. This seems to preclude an Israeli first strike in the immediate context of the prophecy.

That said, there are several ways the current crisis could potentially set the stage for such prophecies to come to pass.

First, an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities could be so successful that Iran is neutralized for several years to come. Israel could find itself feeling more secure than ever. It has recently discovered massive amounts of natural gas offshore. This gas should come online soon and could bring enormous wealth to Israel in a short period of time. An Israeli natural-gas boom could also infuriate Russia, which is one of the world’s leading exporters of natural gas. Such developments could set into motion the War of Gog and Magog in the not-too-distant future.

Second, Russia could dramatically intervene and somehow persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program. That could give Israel short-term security. In turn, however, Russia could go to the U.N. Security Council and demand that Israel disclose, dismantle, and destroy its nuclear weapons. Israel would resist. Russia might then begin to build a military coalition to force Israel to disarm, and this could set into motion a showdown that fulfills the prophecies regarding the War of Gog and Magog. I used a premise like this in my 2005 novel, The Ezekiel Option.

Third, I could imagine a scenario in which the U.S. makes a series of promises to Israel to neutralize Iran, causing Netanyahu to hold off a preemptive strike. But the U.S. could later renege on those promises or find that its attempts to neutralize Iran fell short. Israel would then have missed its opportunity, and Iran would be in the “zone of immunity.” Russia could then see an opportunity to join forces with a nuclear-armed Iran and start building a larger coalition to attack Israel.

These are just a few possibilities. There are other scenarios that could unfold too. The important thing for students and teachers of Scripture to do now is to study these prophecies very carefully and pray faithfully for the Lord to provide his wisdom and discernment.

The Destruction of Damascus

In the spring of 2012, a prominent member of Congress asked to meet with me in Washington, D.C. I thought the topic was going to be the possible coming war between Israel and Iran. Instead, the official asked, “What are your thoughts on Isaiah 17?” For much of the next hour, we discussed the coming judgment of Damascus according to Bible prophecy and how this scenario could possibly unfold in the near future in relation to other Bible prophecies and current geopolitical trends in the Middle East. Given that this prophecy is a significant theme in my forthcoming novel, Damascus Countdown, it is one I have studied carefully.

There are actually two key biblical prophecies that explain that at an unspecified time in the future, the city of Damascus will be completely destroyed—judged by God—and will not be inhabited again.

- Isaiah 17:1-3: “The oracle concerning Damascus. ‘Behold, Damascus is about to be removed from being a city and will become a fallen ruin. The cities of Aroer are forsaken; they will be for flocks to lie down in, and there will be no one to frighten them. The fortified city will disappear from Ephraim, and sovereignty from Damascus.’”

- Jeremiah 49:23-27: “Concerning Damascus. ‘Hamath and Arpad are put to shame, for they have heard bad news; they are disheartened. There is anxiety by the sea, it cannot be calmed. Damascus has become helpless; she has turned away to flee, and panic has gripped her; distress and pangs have taken hold of her like a woman in childbirth. How the city of praise has not been deserted, the town of My joy! Therefore, her young men will fall in her streets, and all the men of war will be silenced in that day,’ declares the LORD of hosts. ‘I will set fire to the wall of Damascus, and it will devour the fortified towers of Ben-hadad.’”

These prophecies have not yet been fulfilled. Damascus is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities on earth. It has been attacked, besieged, and conquered. But Damascus has never been completely destroyed and left uninhabited. Yet that is exactly what the Bible says will happen.

How exactly will Damascus be destroyed? When will it happen? What will that look like, and what will be the implications for the rest of Syria, for Israel, and for the region? The honest answer is that the Bible does not say. In Damascus Countdown, I consider one possible scenario of how these prophecies could come to pass in the context of an Israeli first strike against Iran and a massive retaliation by Iran, Syria, and their allies. In the meantime, I am tracking events in Damascus and Syria very closely. I am also praying much for the Lord Jesus Christ to have mercy on the people of that great city.

How Should Christians Respond?

When I look at the prospect of traumatic events coming to pass, I feel compelled as a follower of Jesus Christ not simply to write about such things but to take practical action to care for those in need and to mobilize others to do the same.

The Joshua Fund is the nonprofit Christian aid organization that I started with my wife, Lynn, in 2006. Our mission is “to mobilize Christians to bless Israel and her neighbors in the name of Jesus, according to Genesis 12:1-3.” These are the famous verses in which God said he would bless those who bless Israel and curse those who curse Israel. We take that passage very seriously. But we also know that Jesus commanded his followers to “love your neighbor” and to “love your enemies.” Thus, while we feel a special calling to bless Israel, we also are honored to find ways to bless the Palestinians and others in the region, as God directs us.

In the current geopolitical environment, our operating principle is very simple: Pray for peace but prepare for war.

In Psalm 122:6, God tells us to “pray for the peace of Jerusalem.” Like millions of other Christians around the world, I’m praying for the peace of Jerusalem. I know that we serve a prayer-hearing and prayer-answering God, a wonder-working God. I believe that God has heard our prayers in recent years, and I’m grateful that an Israeli-Iranian war that has seemed in the past few years like it might break out at any moment has been forestalled time and time again.

That said, the Bible is clear that sometimes God allows wars to happen. In Matthew 24 and Luke 21, Christ taught that in the last days, we will see a rise of wars, rumors of wars, revolutions, violence, and lawlessness. I don’t want Iran to get the Bomb, but I don’t want war either. I am asking the Lord to neutralize the Iran threat, remove the evil regime in Iran (and Syria and Egypt and Lebanon and elsewhere), and liberate the people currently trapped by such wicked leaders—and to do so without making war necessary. I believe this is the right way to pray. We are, after all, commanded in Scripture to pray for peace, and Jesus himself said, “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God” (Matthew 5:9). Still, sometimes God says no to our prayers. Sometimes he allows war. We don’t always know why. We can’t always see what he sees. His ways are higher than our ways. His thoughts are higher than our thoughts. We simply need to trust that he is sovereign and that he will accomplish his perfect plans. What man plans for evil, God can turn for good.

If war does come, then we should be ready, not blindsided. Here are some of the steps The Joshua Fund has been taking to prepare for what may be coming. Over the past few years, we have

- established twelve humanitarian relief distribution centers throughout Israel

- provided humanitarian relief to both Jews and Arabs

- purchased trucks and vans for local Jewish and Christian organizations to help them care for the poor and needy

- purchased and distributed to the poor and needy approximately forty-five tons of food and relief supplies per month

- helped other Christian organizations in Israel purchase and distribute food and relief supplies

- equipped The Joshua Fund staff and key allies with satellite phones to be ready to communicate with one another if a war knocks out the cell phone infrastructure

- purchased and installed a large generator (and fuel supply) at The Joshua Fund warehouse, and purchased and installed smaller generators (and fuel supplies) for the twelve relief centers to have auxiliary power in case war knocks out the power grid

- stockpiled food, water, blankets, and other supplies in case of war or other national emergencies

- put our Israeli staff, allies, and volunteers through training in emergency first aid and how to operate in a crisis

- equipped our facilities with fully stocked bomb shelters

- assisted Christian ministries serving the Palestinians as well as the people of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, and even Iran

- traveled into many of these countries to pray for peace, encourage the local believers, teach the Word of God, and find other practical ways to love and bless Israel’s neighbors now and in the future, should war erupt

- translated my Inside the Revolution documentary film into Farsi and aired it more than forty times on satellite television in Iran. The film explains the latest geopolitical threats and tensions in the Middle East, the Bible prophecies about the future of Israel and Iran, and the stories of Muslims converting to Christianity in record numbers (including in Iran). This special version of the film also closes with Iranian evangelist Hormoz Shariat explaining the gospel in Farsi and giving viewers an opportunity to receive Jesus Christ as their Savior and Lord.

Is this work easy? No. Is what we have done thus far enough? No. But step by step, we’re making progress, caring for poor and needy families—both Jewish and Arab—now, while also getting ready to be a help in times of war and trauma. God is raising up a movement of Christ followers around the world who are committed to loving Israelis because Jesus loves Israelis . . . and loving Palestinians because Jesus loves Palestinians . . . and loving Arabs and Iranians because Jesus loves them, too. This is how the body of Christ is supposed to work—those who have praying, caring, and serving those in need, and doing so in the name of Jesus Christ with unconditional love and unwavering support.

Most Christians have very little geopolitical influence, but we are not powerless. We can pray. We can teach the Word. We can encourage and equip our brothers and sisters in the Middle East. We can show Christ’s love and compassion to all. Jesus commands us: Love your neighbor. Love your enemies. And love one another. This we must do, for if we don’t obey the Lord and shine as a light in the darkness—especially now—who will?

Final Thoughts

The Islamic Republic of Iran declared war on Israel and the United States during the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Its leaders have been hell-bent on killing Jews and Christians ever since, and in recent years they have called outright for the annihilation of both countries.

Now Iran’s leaders—members of an apocalyptic, genocidal death cult who are driven by a murderous Shia Islamic eschatology that calls people to commit genocide in order to hasten the return of the Twelfth Imam—are doing everything in their power to build nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them.

The latest intelligence indicates Iran is 70 percent of the way to building the Bomb. By spring 2013, Iran could be 90 percent of the way to having a nuclear arsenal. Soon they will have the means to accomplish their mission.

Make no mistake: Israel is already at war. Its leaders and people are fighting for their very existence.

Thus far, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government have been waging a fierce and relentless diplomatic, financial, and covert war to slow down and hopefully stop Iran’s bid for the Bomb. But they haven’t made nearly enough progress, and they know it. Now time is running out. If the dynamic doesn’t change quickly—if the U.S. and other world powers don’t take decisive action to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat—it is likely that Netanyahu and his top aides will eventually feel compelled to launch an all-out, full-scale preemptive military strike against Iran. It could go well. It could go badly. But the moment of reckoning is nearly here.

For my part, I pray war is not necessary. I hope a revolution takes down the evil regime in Tehran. Or that God supernaturally intervenes. Or that any other scenario develops that neutralizes the Iranian nuclear threat and liberates the suffering, enslaved Iranian people, short of military conflict. But if war is necessary, if there really is no other way, then Israel should not be left to do the hard work alone. The United States and NATO should not shrink from our moral responsibility to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran from taking over the entire Middle East, unleashing thermonuclear attacks on American and European cities, and attempting to cause a second Holocaust of the Jewish people.

Over the past year, I have taken two trips that moved me deeply. In November 2011, I traveled with several pastors to Poland to visit the death camps in Auschwitz. In August 2012, Lynn and I took our sons to visit the USS Arizona memorial at Pearl Harbor. I went to these places to remember what happens when people ignore emerging threats and don’t take decisive action.

To misunderstand the nature and threat of evil is to risk being blindsided by it. Americans didn’t understand the threat posed by Adolf Hitler and the rise of the Nazi regime in Germany in the 1930s, and we were blindsided by the invasion of Europe and the death camps of the Holocaust. We didn’t understand the threat posed by Imperial Japan in 1941, and we were blindsided by the attack on Pearl Harbor. We didn’t understand the threat posed by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda in 2001, and we were blindsided by the attacks of September 11. We dare not let ourselves be blindsided again.

What’s more, we dare not abandon Israel at this critical hour. In Genesis 12:3, God makes himself clear: those who bless Israel, he will bless; but those who curse Israel, he will curse. President Harry Truman became the first world leader to officially recognize the newly declared modern State of Israel on May 14, 1948. Ever since, the American alliance and friendship with Israel has been strong and noble and enduring, even as we have shown kindness and compassion to Israel’s neighbors, including the Palestinians. As a result, God has blessed America in numerous ways. Now, however, America is stumbling economically, fiscally, morally, culturally, and spiritually. The U.S. is not only facing decline, but we are increasingly at risk of implosion. On top of all our other troubles, challenges, and sins, this is no time for our nation to turn its back on the people of Israel. This is no time to ignore Israel or abandon her or outright turn against her. Doing so could prove the last straw and bring a judgment upon us I shudder to contemplate.

True, the Bible indicates that at some point in the last days—certainly during the prophetic War of Gog and Magog—all the nations of the earth will abandon Israel. The Bible further indicates that eventually—during the prophetic events described in the book of Revelation—all the nations of the earth will actively turn against Israel. The God of Israel will let this happen so he can save Israel physically and spiritually and prove himself the champion and best friend of the Jewish people. But let us not allow America to turn against Israel on our watch. Not here. Not now.

Let us pray for God to give our leaders great wisdom and discernment and the courage to bless Israel and her neighbors. And let us pray for the courage to neutralize Israel’s enemies and our own.

What’s more, let us pray for the Lord to pour out his grace and mercy on Israel and her leaders. Indeed, let us pray that the Lord will make Israel’s leaders like the ones described in 1 Chronicles 12:32—“men who understood the times, with knowledge of what Israel should do.”

Sneak Preview of Damascus Countdown

Ever since I first lived in Israel in 1987 and early 1988 as a student at Tel Aviv University, I have wondered what the future of the Jewish State and the modern Middle East would look like. Later, I had the honor of working for a number of Israeli and American leaders who taught me a great deal about the region and its future from their perspective, and I was able to travel extensively through the epicenter as well. In time, I also had the joy of writing two series of novels and three nonfiction books that have explored different geopolitical, economic, and biblical dynamics at work in the Middle East, war-gaming how various scenarios could play out if they were to happen in my lifetime.

One thing has certainly proven true: it is exceedingly difficult to write fiction that keeps up with the drama unfolding at such a rapid pace in the Middle East today.

Several years ago, I set out to write a three-part series of political thrillers looking at three scenarios I thought were chilling and horrible but plausible.

- Scenario 1: What if an American president thought he truly understood Islam and the Middle East but seriously miscalculated vis-à-vis Iran? What if he discounted the role of Shia End Times theology in the policies of Iran’s leaders and waited too long to take decisive action to neutralize the Iran threat? What if Iran suddenly crossed the nuclear threshold and built not just one but a small arsenal of nuclear warheads and the missiles to deliver them? What if a false messiah claiming to be the Twelfth Imam actually emerged and began leading the Muslim world in an effort to destroy the U.S. and Israel and build an Islamic kingdom or “Caliphate”? What would an American president do in such a dangerous development? This was the premise of The Twelfth Imam.

- Scenario 2: What if, despite the sudden development of an Iranian nuclear arsenal and the launch of a major terrorist attack by Iran on American soil, an American president was more determined to stop Israel from launching a preemptive military strike against Tehran than he was to stop Iran from launching a second Holocaust against Israel? What if such a president applied enormous public, political, diplomatic, and economic pressure on an Israeli prime minister and his government in an effort to prevent Israel from launching a first strike at all costs? How might an Israeli prime minister respond? How would he weigh the pros and cons and make a final decision? How would he see the future of Israel in light of Scripture? Would he order the attack, or would he bow to American pressure? This was the premise of The Tehran Initiative.

- Scenario 3: What if an Israeli prime minister launched a massive preemptive military strike on Iran despite the clearly expressed wishes of the American president that he not do so? How might the war unfold? What tools would Israel have in her arsenal? How might Iran and her allies—Hezbollah, Hamas, and particularly Syria—respond? How bad could the blowback to Israel be, and how would Israel handle an unending barrage of missiles on its population centers night and day? What would happen if Israel’s initial attack was only partially successful and several of the Iranian nuclear warheads survived and were moved and were set to be fired at Israel? How would Israel handle such dangers? Might Israel find itself isolated from the entire international community and cut off from American assistance, alone and on its own in a dangerous world for the foreseeable future? Could Israel inadvertently set into motion events that could spin wildly out of control? Could Iran? Could decisions made by leaders with little or no interest in the Bible unintentionally set the stage for the fulfillment of biblical prophecies about the end of days, including the destruction of one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited cities? This is the premise of the forthcoming novel, Damascus Countdown, the last in the trilogy.

Novels, of course, are safe places to consider such questions. I can set up the geopolitical parameters of the story and then extrapolate what might happen—the good, the bad, and the ugly—without anyone getting hurt. Readers can imagine how various scenarios might unfold without necessarily supporting the choices made by the fictional characters in the novels. World leaders, military officers, and intelligence analysts and operatives can view the stories as they would a war game, considering various outcomes while also challenging the premises and imagining how the stories might change if different decisions were made.

It’s been quite interesting for me over the years to see the wide range of people who read these books. I’ve had current and former officials at the White House, the Pentagon, the CIA, and Homeland Security, plus members of Congress, governors, and presidential candidates contact me to discuss the scenarios and research in these books and to ask me how these possible scenarios should be factored into public policy, if at all. Occasionally foreign leaders are interested as well.

I don’t claim, of course, that the fictional scenarios I lay out in my novels are the way actual geopolitical events or Bible prophecies will play out. These thrillers examine how terrible, traumatic, and even supernatural events could unfold. I hope they keep you riveted and even keep you up late at night talking with family and friends and complete strangers, asking, “What if this stuff were true? What if this stuff happened in our lifetimes? What would it look like? What would it feel like? How would it change my life? How should it?”

That said, here is a sneak preview from my forthcoming thriller, Damascus Countdown, available in bookstores and online March 5, 2013.

1

QOM, IRAN

David knew one of Iran’s largest nuclear facilities—the uranium enrichment plant at Fordow—was just a few miles away over the ridge, and sure enough, a split second later, he heard the deafening roar of explosions, one after another in rapid succession. He turned and saw enormous balls of fire and plumes of smoke rising into the sky and the four Israeli jets disappearing into the clouds.

But then another strike package came swooping down behind them. Four more Israeli fighters—emblazoned with the blue Star of David on their wings—descended like lightning. He assumed their mission, too, was to attack the facility down the road. But David watched in horror as one of the jets first fired an air-to-ground missile at the heart of the mosque behind him. They were sending a message to the Twelfth Imam and to all his followers. But they were about to destroy David’s plan.

His instinct was to get up and run for cover, but it was too late, and he had to do everything possible to protect Javad Nouri. That was his mission. Under no circumstances could he allow Nouri to die. He absolutely had to deliver the aide back to the Mahdi wounded but alive and indebted to David. It was, he believed, the only chance to gain the Mahdi’s trust and the only shred of a chance he had to be invited into the inner circle. Then again, did any of that matter now? The war he had been sent to prevent was under way. The carnage on both sides was going to be incalculable. The entire region was about to go up in flames. What was left for him to do?

Suddenly the ground convulsed as a series of explosions ripped through the complex. The minarets began to totter. People were screaming again, running in all directions as the first tower came crashing down, and the second followed. David covered his head and made sure Nouri was covered too. Then, as the smoke began to clear, he turned and surveyed the carnage. Bodies were sprawled everywhere. Some were dead. Others were severely wounded. David turned Nouri over. He was covered in blood. His eyes were dilated, but he was breathing. He was still alive.

Guns drawn, three injured bodyguards soon rushed to David’s side. With his help, they carefully picked up Nouri and carried him to the white SUV, severely damaged by the car bombing nearby but still intact and still running. Together, they laid Nouri down on the backseat. One security man climbed in the back with him. Another climbed into one of the middle seats. The third shut and locked the side door, then got in the front passenger seat.

“Wait, wait; you forgot these,” David yelled just before the guard closed the door. He grabbed the box of satellite phones and gave them to the guard. “The Mahdi wanted these. They don’t all work. But some of them do.”

Then he pulled out a pen and quickly wrote his mobile number on the box. “Have the Mahdi’s people call me and tell me how Javad is. And tell me if there’s anything I can do for the Mahdi himself.”

The guard thanked David and shook his hand vigorously. Then he shut the door, and what was left of the motorcade raced off.

David stood there alone as the ground shook again. More Israeli jets were swooping down from the heavens. They were firing more missiles and dropping more bombs on targets just over the mountains. For a moment, David couldn’t move. He stared at the billows of smoke rising from the air strikes over the horizon and tried to calculate his next move.

He looked to the street, searching for the taxi he’d asked to wait. It was nowhere to be seen, but he could hardly blame the driver. People were panicked from the gunfire, the car bombing, and the air strikes. They were fleeing as rapidly as they could in every direction. David knew he had to get away as well. He couldn’t afford to be caught by the police and dragged in for questioning. He had a mission. He had a plan. He had a team that was counting on him. He knew he had to stay focused, yet he grieved for those wounded around him. So he turned and rushed to the side of one severely wounded guard who was slipping into unconsciousness. Hearing sirens approaching from every direction, David took off his jacket and used it to put pressure on the man’s bleeding leg. As he did, he silently prayed over the man, asking the Lord to comfort and heal him.

Ambulances began arriving on the scene. Paramedics were soon rushing to the wounded to triage them and get the most critical cases to the nearest hospitals. Amid the chaos and confusion, David saw his opportunity. He took a pistol off the wounded bodyguard and slipped it into his pocket. Then he moved to another of the downed guards. The man seemed to be staring up at the sky. His mouth was open. But when David checked for a pulse, he found none. David closed the man’s eyes, then quickly lifted a spare magazine and took the guard’s two-way radio.

Firefighters were now arriving to battle multiple blazes. More police officers were pulling up as well. They began to secure the crime scene and interview what few witnesses had not fled the scene quickly enough. David tried to use the commotion as cover. He was determined not to be questioned, much less exposed. But then he heard someone shouting behind him. David turned and saw an elderly cleric, blood splattered all over his robes, pointing at him.

“Talk to that man!” the cleric said to a police officer. “He was here when all the shooting started. And I think he just took something off that dead body.”

The policeman looked directly at David and ordered him to stop. David didn’t dare. With a surge of adrenaline, he pivoted hard and began sprinting into the blazing wreckage of the mosque. The officer shouted again for him to halt and began running after him, blowing a whistle and calling other officers to join the pursuit.

2

Everywhere David looked through the thick, black, acrid smoke, he saw a labyrinth of ruins of a once-glorious mosque and flames shooting twenty and thirty feet in the air. Racing through the maze—the heat already unbearable and his shirt almost instantly drenched in sweat—David searched frantically for daylight and fresh, cool air. He knew there was more parking on the other side of the compound. His only chance of escape was getting out of this firestorm, finding a car, and somehow hot-wiring it before he was gunned down or captured by the Iranian police.

The farther he ran into the cooking ruins, the more fearful he became of running into a cul-de-sac of sorts and finding himself surrounded, his exit route cut off by men with guns. The roar of the crackling, leaping flames was nearly deafening, and soon he could barely hear the shouts and the whistles, but he had no doubt they were hot on his heels and closing fast.

He turned right down one alley and came to a fork. He said a quick prayer and took the lane to the left. As he ran, he pulled the pistol out of his pocket and made sure it was loaded. He looked up just in time to see a gigantic pillar ahead of him crumble at its base and then collapse across his escape route. Had it happened a second later, David knew he would have been crushed. Had it happened two seconds later, he would likely have been safe, the pillar blocking his pursuers’ path. As it was, he had no choice but to turn around and head back to the fork.

David raised the pistol in front of him and quickly retraced his steps. As he neared the fork, he could see two figures racing toward him through the smoke. He heard something whiz by his head, followed a split second later by the sound of a gunshot. Diving to the ground, he rolled once, took aim, and fired twice. Both men fell in succession, but David had to assume more were right behind them. He bolted down the other path, had to duck under several flaming beams, but soon found himself clearing the mosque compound and reaching the rear parking lot.

The scene before him was absolute mayhem. Anyone who had a car was in it, and they were all stuck in a massive traffic jam, trying desperately to get away from the mosque and onto the main highways back to Qom or Tehran. For the most part, the only vehicles closest to him were fire trucks and ambulances. David could see a few police cars with their flashing lights near the exit, and several uniformed officers trying to direct traffic and establish some sense of order. It all seemed futile, but he was glad the police anywhere near him at the moment were too busy to pay him any mind.

Just then David spotted two police motorcycles coming around the bend about five or six hundred yards to the south. He pulled back and crouched behind a pile of rubble, hoping the billowing smoke had obscured his movements. For now, it seemed to have. The motorcycle cops approached rapidly, then slowed and patrolled up and down the parking lot. David was certain they were looking for him, and then—as if they had just received a report on their radios—they both stopped, dismounted, drew their weapons, and ran around the far end of the compound. David grabbed the two-way radio he had lifted off the guard near the front gate. He turned it on low and put it close to his ear. As it crackled to life, he could hear someone shouting that the suspect was last seen moving along the west side of the complex. David had no idea who that might be, but it wasn’t him. He was on the east side, and he seized the moment, certain the confusion on the part of the police was temporary at best.

He made a dash for the motorcycles. Neither was running, and neither officer had left his keys in the ignition. But David picked the nearest one and quickly went to work. He pulled out his pocketknife, smashed open the odometer, yanked some wires behind the dials, and clipped off a six-inch piece with one quick movement. Then he kicked the bike over and rapidly stripped the insulation off both ends of the wire. Putting away the knife, he moved to the second bike and quickly found the bundle of three colored wires coming out of the ignition. He followed those to the back of the bike until he found where they ended in a small plastic connector plugged into another set of wires. Glancing from side to side and still seeing no one near him, he unplugged the connector, took the piece of wire from the first bike in his hand, bent it into a U shape, and stuck it into both slots of the connector. He had to fiddle with it a few times to get it right, but after several tense seconds he heard the bike click on. He checked the headlight. It was shining. So he jumped on the bike and hit the ignition button on the throttle. The cycle roared to life.

At that moment, David saw the two officers coming back around the far side of the compound toward the parking lot. Stunned at first at seeing someone stealing a police motorcycle, both officers drew their weapons and began to fire. David pulled his pistol and returned fire, sending both men scrambling for cover. Then he turned and fired two shots at the toppled bike’s gas tank. The second shot was a direct hit, and as soon as he saw the fuel spurting out, he fired again, creating a spark. The vapors ignited, and the tank exploded, sending pieces of the cycle flying in all directions.

David now raced toward the exit. Weaving through the snarled mass of cars and vans and buses trying to leave the mosque grounds slowed him down a bit, but he soon cleared all that and got off the local roads he feared would be clogged with cops. He found an on-ramp to Highway 7 and took it. Soon he was headed north from Qom to Tehran, on the open road and doing ninety. At the moment, almost no vehicles were on this particular stretch of road except an occasional convoy of army vehicles. Yet no one seemed to notice him or care. He had no helmet. He was certain the two officers had already radioed for backup. He fully expected a roadblock waiting for him around every bend. But right now he was alive and free and racing back to the CIA’s safe house in Karaj, a city northwest of Tehran, where he had told his team to reconverge.

Just then David saw a pair of Israeli F-15E Strike Eagles streaking across the horizon ahead of him. Flying at about ten thousand feet, they banked left and made an arc around the mountains to his left. Suddenly the sky erupted in fire from antiaircraft artillery batteries hidden behind a small berm half a klick up the road. David was transfixed as he watched the Israeli jets bob and weave and roll through the triple-A fire, all the while trying feverishly to gain altitude. He cheered as one of the Strike Eagles pulled back and shot nearly straight up into the air like a space shuttle headed for the stratosphere. But as his wingman tried the same maneuver, David saw some of the tracer fire clip the tail of the second Israeli jet. Smoke began to pour out of the plane, and it was no longer climbing. In fact, David could see that one of the jet’s engines was on fire. The plane began spinning wildly out of control and hurtling back toward the earth. David couldn’t imagine how the Israelis were going to survive. They were only a few thousand feet off the deck and coming down fast and hard.

He watched as the canopy exploded off the top of the jet and both the pilot and his weapons officer ejected. Two parachutes deployed almost instantly, moments before the F-15 smashed to the ground in a fireball that would have been dazzling if it had not been so terrifying. David’s gratitude that the pilots had ejected in time quickly evaporated as he realized what would be done to the men if they were caught by the Iranians. Without taking the time to think it through, he took the next exit ramp off Highway 7 and hightailed it to a spot in the desert just outside the Shokohie Industrial Zone, where he suspected both men would soon be landing.

David made a wide berth around the factories, warehouses, and restaurants, lest he run into any local law enforcement. He sped along a series of side streets and then went off-road. To his left, he could both see and smell the burning fuselage of the Strike Eagle, and after a few more miles, he came upon the first parachute and got off the motorcycle. He called out in English, assuring the downed Israeli that he was an American, not an Iranian, but he got no response. He called out again several times, but there was still no reply. Was this guy badly wounded from the ejection or the landing? Or was he lying low, planning an ambush when David got close?

David thought about drawing his pistol but decided against it. Instead, he raised both arms above his head and kept calling out in English. He spotted a leg sticking out from under the chute. Cautiously he approached, still shouting in English that he was an American coming in peace. By the time he finally got to the Israeli’s side and pulled the chute off his face, however, it was clear that he was dead. Indeed, the body was badly burned, the face nearly unrecognizable. The pungent stench of the charred body was revolting, but David forced himself to check the man for identification or papers of any kind. He found nothing. Anything the man might have carried had been burned away.

David ran back to the bike and continued driving—more slowly this time—in search of the other parachute. It took several minutes, but he finally found it. He parked the bike near several large boulders, turned off the engine, removed the piece of wire, and put it in his pocket; then he walked carefully toward the chute, once again repeatedly calling out in English. But when he got to the chute, there was no one to be found. He looked behind several rock outcroppings but still found no one.

The satphone in David’s pocket began vibrating again. This time he pulled out the phone and took the call.

“What in the world are you doing?” asked the voice at the other end.

It was a voice David knew all too well—that of Jack Zalinsky, his Agency handler.

“Trying to save the life of an Israeli fighter pilot,” David replied. “You got a problem with that?”

“That’s not your mission,” Zalinsky said.

“You want the Iranians to capture him?” David asked. “You know what they’ll do to him?”

“What do you think they’ll do to you if they catch you?” Zalinsky pushed back. “What do you think the Mahdi will do when the Revolutionary Guards bring him the battered, beaten, broken, half-dead body of the CIA’s most valuable undercover operative? There’s already an Iranian special forces unit approaching from the south. And a helicopter just lifted off from the IRGC air base south of Qom, filled with heavily armed commandos. Now get on that bike and get out of there before you get yourself captured. That’s an order.”

David was about to argue, but he knew Zalinsky was right. He hung up the phone and ran back to the motorcycle and was about to hot-wire it again when he was coldcocked by someone who jumped him from behind.

His vision blurred, and he abruptly found himself on his back, staring up at a hazy figure standing over him and pointing a 9mm pistol at David’s head.

“Who are you?” the man asked in perfect Farsi.

“What happened?” David asked, his vision still blurry but coming back.

“Don’t move or I’ll blow your head off,” the man said.

As his head began to clear, David could see that the man was, in fact, the Strike Eagle pilot for whom he’d been looking.

“I’m not Iranian,” he replied in English. “I’m an American. I’m here to get you out of harm’s way.”

The Israeli was clearly startled by hearing English, but he wasn’t buying any of it.

“You’re driving a police motorcycle.”

“I stole it,” David said. “Do I look like a cop?”

“You were carrying a police radio and a pistol specially made for the Iranian police,” the Israeli retorted. “And why are you carrying a satphone?”

“Because I’m an American,” David said again. “Look, we don’t have much time. There’s a special forces unit approaching from the south, and there’s a helicopter coming up from Qom packed with Revolutionary Guards. I can get you out of here, get you to a safe house and out of the country. But we’ve got to move now.”

“I don’t believe you,” said the Israeli.

“I don’t care,” David said. “It’s true. And if we don’t move now, we’re both going to die a very painful, very gruesome death.”

David’s heart was racing. It was clear the Israeli still didn’t believe him. And why should he? But they really were out of time.

“Fine,” said the pilot. “Have it your way.”

He pulled back the pistol’s hammer and was about to fire when he instead collapsed to the ground as a gunshot rang out from somewhere to David’s left. The pilot had been shot in the head, no doubt by a sniper hidden in the rocks several hundred yards to the west. That, David figured, was where he would be if the situation were reversed. He grabbed the pistol that had fallen from the Israeli’s hands and ducked behind a boulder as two more shots rang out.

David heard the roar of a helicopter coming up over the ridge. As he tried to squeeze himself farther behind the boulder, he saw the chopper rise into view. His heart was pounding. His hands were shaking. He looked everywhere, but there was nowhere to hide.

The chopper stopped climbing and went into a stabilizing hover. He watched as the side door opened and one of the commandos on board fed .50-caliber rounds into the side-mounted rotary cannon. David raised his pistol and fired every shot in the magazine. None of them hit its mark. The chopper was just far enough away. Now the commando aimed the Gatling-style gun at David’s head and smiled.

But then David heard a high-pitched whistle coming from the west, and as he watched, the chopper exploded and fell from the sky. David, waiting to meet his Maker, couldn’t believe his eyes. What had just happened?

His question was answered when an Israeli Strike Eagle roared past and climbed for the stratosphere. He had avenged his wingman, and now he was gone. David watched the glow of the F-15E’s afterburners, then forced himself back to the moment. He had no idea where the sniper team was, but he prayed they were as distracted by the missile strike and the retreating fighter jet as he was.

This was his only chance. He wasn’t getting another. David scrambled to the motorcycle, hot-wired it again, then jumped on and hit the gas. The whole thing took less than ten seconds, and he was gone.

He hadn’t staved off the war. He hadn’t saved either Israeli airman. But miraculously, he hadn’t been captured or killed either, and for right now, that was more than enough.

About the Author

Joel C. Rosenberg is the New York Times bestselling author of seven novels—The Last Jihad, The Last Days, The Ezekiel Option, The Copper Scroll, Dead Heat, The Twelfth Imam, and The Tehran Initiative—and four nonfiction books, Epicenter, Inside the Revolution, Implosion, and The Invested Life, with more than 2.5 million copies sold. The Ezekiel Option received the Gold Medallion award as the best novel of 2006 from the Evangelical Christian Publishers Association. Joel is the producer of two documentary films based on his nonfiction books. He is also the founder of The Joshua Fund, a nonprofit educational and charitable organization to mobilize Christians to “bless Israel and her neighbors in the name of Jesus” with food, clothing, medical supplies, and other humanitarian relief.

As a communications advisor, Joel has worked with a number of U.S. and Israeli leaders, including Steve Forbes, Rush Limbaugh, Natan Sharansky, and Benjamin Netanyahu. As an author, he has been interviewed on hundreds of radio and TV programs, including ABC’s Nightline, CNN Headline News, FOX News Channel, The History Channel, MSNBC, The Rush Limbaugh Show, The Sean Hannity Show, and The Glenn Beck Show. He has been profiled by the New York Times, the Washington Times, the Jerusalem Post, and World magazine. He has addressed audiences all over the world, including those in Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Russia, and the Philippines. He has also spoken at the White House, the Pentagon, and to members of Congress.

In 2008, Joel designed and hosted the first Epicenter Conference in Jerusalem. The event drew two thousand Christians who wanted to “learn, pray, give, and go” to the Lord’s work in Israel and the Middle East. Subsequent Epicenter Conferences have been held in San Diego (2009); Manila, Philippines (2010); Philadelphia (2010); Jerusalem (2011); and Albuquerque, New Mexico (2012).

The son of a Jewish father and a Gentile mother, Joel is an evangelical Christian with a passion to make disciples of all nations and teach Bible prophecy. A graduate of Syracuse University with a BFA in filmmaking, he is married, has four sons, and lives near Washington, D.C.

To learn more about the work of The Joshua Fund and/or to make a tax deductible financial donation, please go to www.joshuafund.net.

To read Joel’s blog, track current events in real time, or sign up for Joel’s free weekly “Flash Traffic” e-mails, please go to www.joelrosenberg.com.

You can also keep track of the latest developments by following Joel, The Joshua Fund, or the “Epicenter Team” on Facebook, or by following Joel on Twitter, @joelcrosenberg.

Please also visit these other websites:

- www.joshuafund.net

- www.epicenterconference.com

Notes

1 See Joel C. Rosenberg, Epicenter: Why the Current Rumblings in the Middle East Will Change Your Future (Carol Stream, IL: Tyndale, 2006 hardcover edition, or Epicenter 2.0, the 2008 softcover updated edition).

2 “The names of those killed are Maor Harush, 24, and Elior Price, 25, from Acre; Itzik Kolangi, 28, and Amir Menashe, 28, from Petah Tikva; Kochava Shriki, 42, from Rishon Letzion. The sixth victim was the Bulgarian bus driver, Mustafa Kyosov, 36” (Jack Khoury and Chaim Levinson, “Israel Names Five Victims of Bulgaria Terror Attack,” Haaretz, July 19, 2012, http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/israel-names-five-victims-of-bulgaria-terror-attack-1.452308).

3 See “Bulgarian Bus Attack Is Work of Suicide Bomber, Minister Says,” CNN, July 19, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/19/world/europe/bulgaria-israel-blast/index.html; Ilan Ben Zion and Michael Shmulovich, “7 Dead, 3 Critical after Attack on Israeli Tourists in Bulgaria,” Times of Israel, July 18, 2012, http://www.timesofisrael.com/explosion-rocks-israeli-tour-bus-in-bulgaria/; Atara Arbesfeld, “42-Year-Old Pregnant Woman Was Killed in Burgas Terror Attack after Years of Struggling with Infertility,” July 19, 2012, Algemeiner, http://www.algemeiner.com/2012/07/19/42-year-old-pregnant-woman-was-killed-in-burgas-terror-attack-after-years-of-struggling-with-infertility/.

4 Attila Somfalvi, “PM on Bulgaria Terror Attack: All Signs Point to Iran,” Ynet News, July 18, 2012, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4257558,00.html.

5 For details about the Beirut bombing and the communications intercept, see Joel C. Rosenberg, Inside the Revolution: How the Followers of Jihad, Jefferson, and Jesus Are Battling to Dominate the Middle East and Transform the World (Carol Stream, IL: Tyndale, 2009); for more details regarding the “largest non-nuclear explosion” and other elements of Iranian complicity in the Beirut attack, see Hon. Royce C. Lamberth, United States District Judge, District of Columbia, “Memorandum Opinion” in the case of Plaintiffs v. the Islamic Republic of Iran, http://www.courthousenews.com/2010/09/27/Marine.pdf.

6 For details about the Khobar Towers bombing, see Rosenberg, Inside the Revolution; for details on the court case, see Neil A. Lewis, “Judge Links Iran to ’96 Attack in Saudi Arabia,” New York Times, December 23, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/23/world/middleeast/23khobar.html?_r=0.

7 From the end of “Operation Cast Lead” in January 2009 through September 20, 2012, some 1,097 rockets and mortars had been fired at Israel from Gaza in violation of the cease-fire agreement. See “Palestinian Ceasefire Violations Since the End of Operation Cast Lead,” Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, September 20, 2012, http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Terrorism-+Obstacle+to+Peace/Hamas+war+against+Israel/Palestinian_ceasefire_violations_since_end_Operation_Cast_Lead.htm.

8 See “Hamas Leader Praises Iran’s Help in Gaza ‘Victory,’” CNN, February 1, 2009, http://articles.cnn.com/2009-02-01/world/iran.hamas_1_rockets-at-southern-israel-gaza-hamas-leader?_s=PM:WORLD.

9 See “Hamas Official in Tehran Praises Iran’s ‘Limitless Support,’” Daily Star (Lebanon), March 16, 2012, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Mar-16/166822-hamas-official-in-tehran-praises-irans-limitless-support.ashx#axzz28LtGcS8z.

10 See Gili Cohen and Jonathan Lis, “IDF: Israel in Range of Nearly 65,000 Hezbollah, Iran, Syria Rockets,” Haaretz, May 23, 2012, http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/idf-israel-in-range-of-nearly-65-000-hezbollah-iran-syria-rockets.premium-1.432012; Yossi Melman, “Haaretz WikiLeaks Exclusive / ‘Hezbollah Expected to Launch 100 Missiles a Day at Tel Aviv,’” April 8, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/news/haaretz-wikileaks-exclusive/haaretz-wikileaks-exclusive-hezbollah-expected-to-launch-100-missiles-a-day-at-tel-aviv-1.354826.

11 Author’s notes from a conference call with then-former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on January 12, 2009. The call was organized by One Jerusalem, an organization founded in the fall of 2000 by former Israeli deputy prime minister Natan Sharansky to educate and mobilize grassroots support around the world in defense of Israel and in defense of keeping Jerusalem the undivided, sovereign capital of the Jewish State. (I was working for Mr. Sharansky in 2000 as a communications advisor when One Jerusalem was launched and have worked with Sharansky and his organization on various media projects in the years since.)

12 See speech by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UN General Assembly’s General Debate, September 27, 2012, http://www.israelemb.org/washington/NewsAndEvents/Pages/Prime-Minister-Netanyahu%27s-Speech-to-the-67th-United-Nations-General-Assembly.aspx; see also Joel C. Rosenberg, “Netanyahu Tells U.N. Iran Could Have Nukes by Spring: Is War Imminent? Analysis” blog column, September 27, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/27/netanyahu-tells-u-n-iran-could-have-nukes-by-spring-is-war-imminent/.

13 See hotel website, http://www.warwickhotelny.com/, accessed on October 9, 2012.

14 For Carleton quote, see Deepti Hajela, “Ahmadinejad in New York: Protests Surround Iranian President’s Visit,” Associated Press, September 24, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/20/ahmadinejad-new-york_n_1901772.html. UANI is a “not-for-profit, non-partisan, advocacy group that seeks to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to obtain nuclear weapons.” It was founded in 2008 by Ambassador Mark D. Wallace, the late Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, former CIA Director Jim Woolsey and Middle East expert Dennis Ross. For details about UANI, see http://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/about/mission.

15 Hajela, “Ahmadinejad in New York,” Associated Press.

16 Louis Charbonneau, “U.N. Chief Warns Iran’s Ahmadinejad on Fiery Rhetoric,” Reuters, September 23, 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/u-n-chief-warns-irans-ahmadinejad-fiery-rhetoric-002643704.html.

17 Louis Charbonneau, “In New York, Defiant Ahmadinejad Says Israel Will Be ‘Eliminated,’” Reuters, September 24, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/24/us-un-assembly-ahmadinejad-idUSBRE88N0HF20120924.

18 “Amir Ali Hajizadeh, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, made the comments to Iran’s state-run Arabic language Al-Alam television. ‘Iran . . . could launch a pre-emptive attack if it was sure that the enemies are putting the final touches to attack it,’ Al-Alam said, paraphrasing the military commander. Hajizadeh said any attack on Iranian soil could trigger ‘World War Three.’ ‘We cannot imagine the Zionist regime starting a war without America’s support. Therefore, in case of a war, we will get into a war with both of them and we will certainly get into a conflict with American bases,’ he said” (“Iran Could Launch Pre-emptive Israel Strike—Commander,” Reuters, September 23, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-iran-nuclear-israel-preemptive-idUSBRE88M09C20120923).

19 Charbonneau, “In New York, Defiant Ahmadinejad Says Israel Will Be ‘Eliminated,’” Reuters.

20 Dudi Cohen, “Khamenei: Our Enemies Won’t Dare Strike Iran,” Ynet News, July 25, 2012, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4260298,00.html.

21 Herb Keinon and Joanna Paraszczuk, “Khamenei: Zionist Regime Will Disappear from Map,” Jerusalem Post, August 15, 2012, http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=281366.

22 “Iran: Israel Won’t Launch ‘Stupid’ Attack,” Agence France Presse, August 14, 2012, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4268339,00.html.

23 “Iran: Israel Won’t Launch ‘Stupid’ Attack,” Agence France Presse, August 14, 2012, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4268339,00.html.

24 “Iranian Foreign Minister: ‘Israel Can’t Carry Out Attack’ against Iran,” CBS News, September 18, 2012, http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/09/18/iranian-foreign-minister-israel-cant-carry-out-attack-against-iran/.

25 See Martin Gould and Kathleen Walter, “Wesley Clark to Newsmax: Israel Will Not Bomb Iran,” Newsmax, September 26, 2012, http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Clark-Israel-bomb-Iran/2012/09/26/id/457708.

26 See Mohammed Daraghmeh, “Palestinians Not Worried by Israel-Iran War,” Associated Press, September 19, 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/palestinians-not-worried-israel-iran-war-181737046.html.

27 See http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=285038.

28 See Boaz Fyler, “Mofaz: Iran Strike in 2012 Unlikely: Kadima Chairman Says Not All Options Have Been Exhausted on Iranian Issues; Blasts PM over War of Words with US,” Ynet News, September 11, 2012, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4280186,00.html.

29 See http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidblair/100177697/four-reasons-why-israel-probably-wont-attack-iran/.

30 See http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/new-evidence-that-israel-is-bluffing-about-iran/261187/.

31 See http://thediplomat.com/2012/08/22/why-israel-wont-attack-iran/.

32 See http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/03/16/Waters-Netanyahu-Lying-About-Willingness-to-Go-to-War-Alone.

33 See http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2012/03/benjamin_netanyahu_is_bluffing_about_an_imminent_attack_on_iran_.html.

34 See http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/02/netanyahu_won_t_attack_iran.

35 Every Spy a Prince: The Complete History of Israel’s Intelligence Community (1990); Friends in Deed: Inside the U.S.–Israel Alliance (1994); and Spies against Armageddon: Inside Israel’s Secret Wars (July 2012).

36 See Dan Raviv and Yossi Melman, “Why Israel Won’t Bomb Iran: At Least until the U.S. Presidential Election, Netanyahu Won’t Risk Angering Obama,” Tablet magazine, July 11, 2012, http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/105880/why-israel-won%e2%80%99t-bomb-iran.

37 Jeffrey Goldberg, “7 Reasons Why Israel Should Not Attack Iran’s Nuclear Facilities,” The Atlantic, August 11, 2012, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/7-reasons-why-israel-should-not-attack-irans-nuclear-facilities/261028/.

38 Benzion Netanyahu made the statement in a 1998 interview with David Remnick of The New Yorker in 1998. The quote and article were cited by Douglas Martin, “Benzion Netanyahu, Hawkish Scholar, Dies at 102,” New York Times, April 30, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/01/world/middleeast/benzion-netanyahu-dies-at-102.html.

39 In January 2011, Barak made another extraordinary move. He bolted the Labor Party, his own political party, the party of which he was the head. With his departure, he created a new, “centrist” party and pulled a number of allies along with him. His reasons were varied, but part of the equation was that the grassroots members of the Labor Party couldn’t abide Barak’s working so closely with Netanyahu. Barak, however, had forged a close friendship and working relationship with Netanyahu. What’s more, Netanyahu made it clear he needed Barak to continue preparing for a possible massive war with Iran. In the end, the fate of the country and his own relationship with Netanyahu persuaded Barak to leave Labor and stay in the government.

40 Cited by V. S. Naipaul, Among the Believers, pp. 81–82; and by Robin Wright, Sacred Rage, p. 21.

41 Cited by Hamid Algar, Islam and Revolution: Writings and Declarations of Imam Khomeini, p. 286.

42 Cited by Kasra Naji, Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran’s Radical Leader, p. 144.

43 Cited by Kasra Naji, Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran’s Radical Leader, p. 143.

44 Cited by Kasra Naji, Ahmadinejad: The Secret History of Iran’s Radical Leader, p. 139.

45 Cited by Alireza Jafarzedeh, The Iran Threat, p. 31.

46 “Ahmadinejad Says Israel Will Soon Disappear,” Agence France-Presse, June 2, 2008.

47 “Iran: We Will Help ‘Cut Out the Cancer of Israel,’” London Telegraph, February 3, 2012, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/9059179/Iran-We-will-help-cut-out-the-cancer-of-Israel.html.

48 Joanna Paraszczuk, “Ahmadinejad: World Forces Must Annihilate Israel,” Jerusalem Post, August 2, 2012, http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=279864.

49 Greg Tepper, “Israel a ‘Cancerous Tumor’ and Middle East’s Biggest Problem, Iranian Supreme Leader Says,” Times of Israel, August 19, 2012, http://www.timesofisrael.com/khamenei-israeli-a-malignant-zionist-tumor/.

50 See Jeffrey Goldberg, “Netanyahu to Obama: Stop Iran—Or I Will,” The Atlantic, March 2009, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/03/netanyahu-to-obama-stop-iran-or-i-will/307390/?single_page=true. The story first appeared on the magazine’s website on March 31, 2009, just hours after the interview was conducted.

51 “Iranian Website: Khamenei Claims He Was Visited by Hidden Imam,” Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), citing the “website of the Supreme Leader (Iran), July 10, 2010” and an Iranian blog that initially noted the story, “www.khaandaniha.com, July 9, 2010.” See http://www.thememriblog.org/blog_personal/en/28451.htm.

52 See “Iran’s Supreme Leader Says He Represents Prophet Muhammad on Earth,” Voice of America, July 20, 2010, http://www.voanews.com/content/irans-supreme-leader-says-he-represents-prophet-muhammad-on-earth-98945624/172166.html; also see Joel C. Rosenberg, “Ayatollah Khamenei Says He Represents Muhammad and the Twelfth Imam on Earth,” blog post, July 29, 2010, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2010/07/29/ayatollah-khamenei-says-he-represents-muhammad-and-the-twelfth-imam-on-earth-pre-sales-begin-for-joels-new-novel-the-twelfth-imam-to-be-released-oct-19/.

53 See Joel C. Rosenberg, “Analysis: Why Is the New Iranian Video about the Soon Coming of the Messiah Significant?” blog post, April 4, 2011, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2011/04/04/analysis-why-is-the-new-iranian-video-about-the-coming-of-the-messiah-significant/. See also Erick Stakelbeck, “Iranian Video Says Mahdi Is ‘Near,’” CBN News, first published March 28, 2011, then updated on April 3, 2011, http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2011/March/Iranian-Regime-Video-Says-Mahdi-is-Near-/. The video was first brought to the attention of the West by Reza Kahlili, a former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officer who became a double agent for the CIA and eventually defected to and settled in the U.S. See http://atimetobetray.com/blog/a-new-iranian-film-highlights-the-threat-to-israel/.

54 See Joel C. Rosenberg, “Iran Leader: We Must Prep for the ‘End Times,’” blog post, July 12, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/07/12/iran-leader-we-must-prep-for-the-end-times/. For original article, see Reza Kahlili, “Iran Leader: We Must Prep for ‘End of Times,’” World Net Daily, July 8, 2012, http://www.wnd.com/2012/07/iran-leader-we-must-prep-for-end-of-times/.

55 See Joel C. Rosenberg, “Exclusive: Ahmadinejad’s End Times Speech to the U.N.: Gives Most Detailed Explanation of Twelfth Imam to Date; Tells U.N. Leaders Mahdi Will ‘Soon’ Reign over World,” blog post, September 26, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/26/exclusive-ahmadinejad-gives-most-detailed-explanation-of-twelfth-imam-to-date-says-mahdi-will-soon-reign-over-whole-world/; see also Rosenberg, “Ahmadinejad’s ‘End Times’ Address to U.N.,” World Net Daily, September 26, 2012, http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/ahmadinejads-end-times-address-to-u-n/.

56 Damascus Countdown is scheduled for release on March 5, 2013.

57 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, September 27, 2012, http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Government/Speeches+by+Israeli+leaders/2012/PM-Netanyahu-addresses-UN-27-Sep-2012.htm.

58 See Joel C. Rosenberg, “Train Wreck: Netanyahu Heading for U.S. as Israeli Trust in President Obama Plummets,” blog post, November 3, 2009, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/train-wreck-netanyahu-heading-for-u-s-as-israeli-trust-in-the-obama-plummets/.

59 See Joel C. Rosenberg, “Exclusive: What’s Happening behind Closed Doors in the Obama-Netanyahu Meetings? Netanyahu Stood His Ground,” blog post, March 25, 2010, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2010/03/25/exclusive-whats-happening-behind-closed-doors-in-the-obama-netanyahu-meetings-its-not-good-2/.

60 See Alister Bull, “Obama Did Not Snub Israeli PM: Axelrod,” Reuters, March 28, 2010, http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/03/28/us-usa-israel-idUSTRE62R0NB20100328.

61 For more, see Michael B. Oren, Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East (New York: Presidio Press, 2002).

62 See Goldberg, “Netanyahu to Obama: Stop Iran—Or I Will,” The Atlantic.

63 Muhammad Sahimi, “Who Murdered Prof. Ali-Mohammadi?” PBS Frontline, Tehran Bureau, January 13, 2010, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/01/who-murdered-prof-ali-mohammadi.html.

64 Wafa Issa, “Al Mabhouh Killed Hours after Arrival,” The National, February 1, 2010, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/al-mabhouh-killed-hours-after-arrival.

65 David E. Sanger and Thom Shanker, “Gates Says U.S. Lacks a Policy to Thwart Iran,” New York Times, April 17, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/18/world/middleeast/18iran.html.

66 Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Point of No Return,” The Atlantic, September 2010, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/308186/?single_page=true. The date of the article is September, but it was posted online in August.

67 See Joel C. Rosenberg, “Updated: Covert War Underway in Iran to Sabotage Nuclear Facilities,” blog post, September 29, 2010, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2010/09/29/covert-war-underway-in-iran-to-sabotage-nuclear-facilities-iran-sentences-blogger-to-19-years-in-prison/.

68 Thomas Erdbrink and Ellen Nakashima, “Iran Struggling to Contain ‘Foreign-Made’ ‘Stuxnet’ Computer Virus,” Washington Post, September 27, 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/27/AR2010092706229_pf.html.

69 John Markoff and David E. Sanger, “In a Computer Worm, a Possible Biblical Clue,” New York Times, September 29, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/world/middleeast/30worm.html.

70 Matthew Cole and Mark Schone, “Who Is Killing Iran’s Nuclear Scientists?” ABC News, July 26, 2011, http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/killing-irans-nuclear-scientists/story?id=14152453.

71 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Year End Analysis of Iran Threat,” blog post, December 16, 2010, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/how-soon-will-israel-hit-iran-top-u-s-and-israeli-experts-discuss-iran-nuclear-threat-the-stuxnext-virus-and-the-twelfth-imam/.

72 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Year End Analysis of Iran Threat,” blog post, December 16, 2010, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/how-soon-will-israel-hit-iran-top-u-s-and-israeli-experts-discuss-iran-nuclear-threat-the-stuxnext-virus-and-the-twelfth-imam/.

73 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Year End Analysis of Iran Threat,” blog post, December 16, 2010, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2010/12/16/how-soon-will-israel-hit-iran-top-u-s-and-israeli-experts-discuss-iran-nuclear-threat-the-stuxnext-virus-and-the-twelfth-imam/.

74 Joel C. Rosenberg, “New Egyptian President: ‘Jihad Is Our Path,’” blog post, June 25, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/new-egyptian-president-says-jihad-is-our-path/.

75 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Syrian Implosion: 20,000 Dead,” blog post, August 6, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/06/syrian-implosion-20000-dead-now-assad-regime-prime-minister-defects-to-jordan-as-do-3-cabinet-members/.

76 Matthew Cole and Mark Schone, “Who Is Killing Iran’s Nuclear Scientists?” ABC News, July 26, 2011, http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/killing-irans-nuclear-scientists/story?id=14152453.

77 Amos Harel, “Panetta in TA Warns Israel off Iran Strike,” Haaretz, October 4, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/panetta-in-ta-warns-israel-off-iran-strike-1.387975; Joel C. Rosenberg, “Is Netanyahu Signaling a Preemptive Strike against Iran?” National Review Online, November 2, 2011, http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/282070/netanyahu-signaling-preemptive-strike-against-iran-joel-c-rosenberg.

78 Richard Esposito and Brian Ross, “Iran ‘Directed’ Washington, D.C., Terror Plot, U.S. Says,” ABC News, October 11, 2011, http://news.yahoo.com/iran-directed-washington-d-c-terror-plot-u-145047966.html.

79 “Iran’s Terror Plot,” editorial, Wall Street Journal, October 13, 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203633104576625260808261024.html.

80 Richard Esposito and Brian Ross, “Iran ‘Directed’ Washington, D.C., Terror Plot, U.S. Says,” ABC News, October 11, 2011, http://news.yahoo.com/iran-directed-washington-d-c-terror-plot-u-145047966.html.

81 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Fox News Channel Interview on Iran Terror Plot, 2012 Race, and The Tehran Initiative,” blog post (includes transcript from program with Shannon Bream), October 17, 2011, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2011/10/17/fox-news-channel-interview-on-iran-terror-plot-2012-race-and-the-tehran-initiative-transcript-video/.

82 Julian Borger and Saeed Kamali Dehghan, “Iranian Missile Architect Dies in Blast. But Was Explosion a Mossad Mission?” Guardian, November 14, 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/14/iran-missile-death-mossad-mission.

83 Yaakov Katz, “Blast in Iran Struck Uranium Enrichment Facility,” Jerusalem Post, November 30, 2011, http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=247560.

84 “Report: Seven Killed in Explosion at Iran Steel Factory,” Haaretz, December 12, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/report-seven-killed-in-explosion-at-iran-steel-factory-1.400988.

85 Scott Shane and David E. Sanger, “Drone Crash in Iran Reveals Secret U.S. Surveillance Effort,” New York Times, December 7, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/08/world/middleeast/drone-crash-in-iran-reveals-secret-us-surveillance-bid.html?_r=0.

86 “The Wrong Signals to Iran,” editorial, Washington Post, December 8, 2011, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-wrong-signals-to-iran/2011/12/06/gIQAvzNYgO_story.html?hpid=z3.

87 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Covert War Heats Up in Iran and Mideast,” blog post, December 8, 2011, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2011/12/08/covert-war-heats-up-in-iran-will-it-be-enough-to-neutralize-nuclear-threat-or-will-israel-launch-preemptive-strikes-in-2012/.

88 Ronen Bergman, “Will Israel Attack Iran?” New York Times Magazine, January 25, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-israel-attack-iran.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print.

89 David Ignatius, “Is Israel Preparing to Attack Iran?” Washington Post, February 2, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-israel-preparing-to-attack-iran/2012/02/02/gIQANjfTkQ_print.html.

90 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Rumors of War: Could Hostilities between Israel and Iran Break Out in Spring 2012?” The Joshua Fund blog, February 3, 2012, http://www.joshuafund.net/media/the_joshua_fund_blog/rumors_of_war_could_hostilities_between_israel_and_iran_break_out_in_spring.

91 Joel Greenberg, “Barak Says Time Running Out for Action against Iran’s Nuclear Program,” Washington Post, February 2, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/barak-says-time-running-out-for-action-against-irans-nuclear-program/2012/02/02/gIQAZFm5kQ_story.html.

92 Robert Burns, “Def Sec’y Panetta: Pressure Must Be Kept on Iran,” Associated Press, February 3, 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/def-secy-panetta-pressure-must-kept-iran-142534584.html.

93 Helene Cooper, “‘Loose Talk of War’ Only Helps Iran, President Says,” New York Times, March 4, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/05/world/middleeast/in-aipac-speech-obama-warns-against-loose-talk-of-war.html?_r=1&ref=world.

94 “U.S.: Iran Faces ‘Crippling’ Sanctions If Nuclear Talks Fail,” Reuters, Haaretz, April 22, 2009, http://www.haaretz.com/news/u-s-iran-faces-crippling-sanctions-if-nuclear-talks-fail-1.274594.

95 “U.S. Says Does Not Seek Crippling Sanctions on Iran,” Reuters, February 25, 2010, http://uk.reuters.com/article/2010/02/25/uk-iran-nuclear-clinton-idUKTRE61O55220100225.

96 See “Obama Administration Urges Congress to Weaken Iran Sanctions Bill,” Associated Press, December 6, 2011, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/12/06/obama-administration-urges-congress-to-weaken-iran-sanctions-bill/#ixzz27ceyh2Un. See also James Phillips, “Congress Should Reject the Obama Administration’s Efforts to Weaken Iran Sanctions,” Heritage Foundation WebMemo #3432, December 13, 2011, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/12/reject-efforts-to-weaken-iran-sanctions.

97 See Indira A.R. Lakshmanan, “U.S. Senate Approves Sanctions Aimed at Crippling Iran Oil Sales,” Bloomberg, December 2, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/u-s-senate-overrules-obama-with-iran-oil-sanctions.html.

98 Laura MacInnis, “U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Banks Dealing with Iran,” Reuters, December 31, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/31/us-iran-usa-obama-idUSTRE7BU0GP20111231.

99 See Joel C. Rosenberg, “Netanyahu Gives Obama ‘Esther’ Scroll,” blog post, March 6, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/netanyahu-gives-obama-esther-scroll-biblical-story-tells-of-a-persian-tyrant-who-wanted-to-annihilate-the-jews/. See also “PM Hands Obama a Megila: Persian Plot against Jews,” Reuters, March 6, 2012, http://www.jpost.com/JewishWorld/JewishFeatures/Article.aspx?id=260676.

100 Mark Landler, “Obama Presses Netanyahu to Resist Strikes on Iran,” New York Times, March 5, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/world/middleeast/obama-cites-window-for-diplomacy-on-iran-bomb.html?_r=1&hp.

101 See Benjamin Netanyahu, full speech text, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, March 5, 2012, http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Government/Speeches+by+Israeli+leaders/2012/PM_Netanyahu_AIPAC_Policy_Conference_5-Mar-2012.htm.

102 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Netanyahu: ‘None of Us Can Afford to Wait Much Longer’: A Man Who Has Made Peace with the Task Ahead,” blog post, March 6, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/netanyahu-none-of-us-can-afford-to-wait-much-longer-a-man-who-has-made-peace-with-the-task-ahead/.

103 Elisabeth Bumiller and Jodi Rudoren, “U.S. and Israel Intensify Talks on Iran Options,” New York Times, August 1, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/middleeast/in-israel-panetta-warns-iran-on-nuclear-program.html?pagewanted=1&_r=4.

104 Ari Shavit, “A Grave Warning on Iran from ‘the Decision Maker,’” Haaretz, August 11, 2011, http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/magazine/a-grave-warning-on-iran-from-the-decision-maker-1.457158

105 In 2003 and 2004, Great Britain, France, and Germany opened direct diplomatic discussions with Iran to find a peaceful resolution to the nuclear showdown. In 2006, this group was expanded to involve other key countries. The “P5+1 Group” thus refers to the five principal countries that sit on the U.N. Security Council (the U.S., Russia, China, Great Britain, and France) plus Germany.

106 Jodi Rudoren, “Israeli Minister Asks Nations to Say Iran Talks Have Failed,” New York Times, August 12, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/13/world/middleeast/time-to-call-diplomatic-effort-on-iran-a-failure-israeli-official-says.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytimesworld&seid=auto.

107 This quote is taken from page 8. See full IAEA report at http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2012/gov2012-37.pdf.

108 “In addition to Netanyahu, the security cabinet includes Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman, Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch, Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, Construction and Housing Minister Ariel Attias, Minister-without-Portfolio Bennie Begin, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon, Interior Minister Eli Yishai, Energy and Water Minister Uzi Landau, Intelligence Agencies Minister Dan Meridor, Education Minister Gideon Sa’ar, and Regional Development Minister Silvan Shalom.” See Herb Keinon, “Security Cabinet Convenes for 10-Hour Iran Session,” Jerusalem Post, September 4, 2012, http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=283835. See also Maayan Lubell, “Netanyahu, Complaining of Leaks, Ends Iran Meeting,” Reuters, September 5, 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/netanyahu-complaining-leaks-ends-iran-meeting-091047742.html?_esi=1.

109 Shlomo Cesana et al., “Israel Facing Most Fateful Days Since 1973, Says PM Confidant,” Israel Hayom, September 7, 2012, http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=5720.

110 Randall Palmer, “Canada Closes Embassy in Iran, to Expel Iranian Diplomats,” Reuters, September 7, 2012, http://news.yahoo.com/canada-closes-iran-embassy-expel-remaining-iranian-diplomats-134816841.html?_esi=1.

111 Karen DeYoung and Joel Greenberg, “Netanyahu: Without Ultimatum, U.S. Has No ‘Moral Right’ to Stop Israel from Attacking Iran,” Washington Post, September 11, 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/netanyahu-without-ultimatum-us-has-no-moral-right-to-stop-israel-from-attacking-iran/2012/09/11/cb56ac8a-fc12-11e1-a31e-804fccb658f9_story.html.

112 Joel C. Rosenberg, “IDF Launches Surprise Live-Fire Exercises on Syrian Border,” blog post, September 19, 2012, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2012/09/19/idf-launches-surprise-live-fire-exercises-on-syrian-border/.

113 Rick Gladstone and Christine Hauser, “Iran’s Top Atomic Official Says Nation Issued False Nuclear Data to Fool Spies,” New York Times, September 20, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/world/middleeast/iran-atomic-official-says-it-gave-false-nuclear-information-to-fool-spies.html.

114 “Report: Iran Uncovered Spying Device Disguised as Rock at Fordow Nuclear Plant,” Haaretz (drawing on a report from the Sunday Times), September 23, 2012, http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/report-iran-uncovered-spying-device-disguised-as-rock-at-fordow-nuclear-plant-1.466313.

115 Benjamin Netanyahu, “Address by PM Netanyahu at Auschwitz Concentration Camp,” Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, January 27, 2010, http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/Government/Speeches+by+Israeli+leaders/2010/Address_PM_Netanyahu_at_Auschwitz_27-Jan-2010.htm; see also Joel C. Rosenberg, “Netanyahu at Auschwitz Says Prophecies of Ezekiel 37 Have Been Fulfilled,” blog post, January 29, 2010, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2010/01/29/netanyahu-at-auschwitz-says-prophecies-of-ezekiel-37-have-been-fulfilled/.

116 Eli Ashkenazi, “Netanyahu’s Son Avner Wins National Bible Quiz,” Haaretz, March 17, 2010, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/netanyahu-s-son-avner-wins-national-bible-quiz-1.264860.

117 Netanyahu has three children: a daughter from his first marriage and two sons from his third marriage. His daughter, Noa, was born in 1978. His and Sara’s son Yair was born in 1991. Their son Avner was born in 1994.

118 Ashkenazi, “Netanyahu’s Son Avner Wins National Bible Quiz,” Haaretz.

119 Jonah Mandel, “World Bible Quiz Winner: Or Ashual,” Jerusalem Post, April 20, 2010, http://www.jpost.com/JewishWorld/JewishNews/Article.aspx?ID=173534.

120 “Interview with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” Larry King Live, CNN, transcript, July 7, 2010, http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1007/07/lkl.01.html.

121 Herb Keinon, “Netanyahu Re-establishes PM Bible Class,” Jerusalem Post, December 10, 2011, http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=248941; see also Joel C. Rosenberg, “Netanyahu to Begin Bible Study in His Home,” blog post, December 13, 2011, http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2011/12/13/netanyahu-to-start-bible-study-in-his-home-pray-that-all-israelis-follow-his-lead-and-begin-reading-the-word-like-in-the-days-of-king-josiah/.

122 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Netanyahu to Begin Bible Study in His Home,” blog post.

123 Joel C. Rosenberg, “Netanyahu to Begin Bible Study in His Home,” blog post.

124 Herb Keinon, “Reporter’s Notebook: Studying Bible with Bibi,” Jerusalem Post, May 25, 2012, http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=271407.

125 Herb Keinon, “Reporter’s Notebook: Studying Bible with Bibi,” Jerusalem Post, May 25, 2012, http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=271407.

126 This section on the “Prophecy concerning Elam” is taken from my book Inside the Revolution (Carol Stream, Illinois: Tyndale, 2009).